UK National Polling: the Reform Party leads for the first time

[-:Undertaker:-]

UK National Polling: the Reform Party leads for the first time

Reform now leads nationally with Nigel Farage now being viewed by the public as Britain's next Prime Minister

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It's finally happened.

As the seat predictions show though, on these numbers we'd be headed for a hung Parliament.

Thoughts?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Another all-time high tonight from Opinium.

This poll suggests that opposition to the Labour government is now beginning to rally behind Reform whereas it's been split so far.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

Their biggest lead yet...

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And a big jump with another pollster too.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

Topping the polls with YouGov now.

What's interesting to think about is what the inflection point would be for large-scale defections from residual Tory voters if momentum continues behind Reform. We know that FPTP has a rallying mechanism whereby voters will swing behind one of two parties, hence a two-party system. There's already signs of this with Tory donors beginning to switch over, and I suspect once the Tories begin falling under 20% you may get a runaway cascade effect with voters and donors deciding the Tories are a busted flush.

The last time a major party of government collapsed in Britain was in 1918: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_U...neral_election - when the Liberal Party bled support and was eventually supplanted by the Labour Party.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

Oh wow.

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[Seatherny]

Potentially 4.5 years till the next GE. A lot can and will change before then, so this polling data means nothing. If anything, it is just for the opposition to use to try and rattle Labour. However, we are stuck with Labour and their failures for potentially 4.5 years.

RIP UK.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Potentially 4.5 years till the next GE. A lot can and will change before then, so this polling data means nothing. If anything, it is just for the opposition to use to try and rattle Labour. However, we are stuck with Labour and their failures for potentially 4.5 years.

RIP UK.

I agree we're far out from the next GE, but this situation is unprecedented and it's interesting to see what form the opposition to the government takes over the next year or two. It's remarkable that this government - which only recently won a landslide of 411 seats - is already so unpopular in the opinion polls and approval ratings. They've soured quicker than a bottle of gold top milk left on a step on a sunny July day.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

More polling.

There's increasing talk of the Tories binning off Olukemi Badenoch as leader, but in my view that'll just make them look even more incompetent than they already are - that would be their sixth leader since 2016. The problem they have isn't one of leadership, but the fact that right-wing voters no longer believe a word they say and now have an alternative to vote for.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

Now leading across most of the pollsters for voting intention.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...ting_intention

And in the preferred Prime Minister polling.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio...prime_minister



I won't post anymore until/unless we get some polls in the 30%+ region, which is when Reform would then be in parliamentary majority territory.

[Evanora]

oh darling xx
agreed
....

fittest habbo is undertaker x