ICM: Support for Britain's established parties is splintering as UKIP hits record 18%

[Grig]

Why doesn't Nigel Farage ever talk about these? All you ever hear him banging on about is the tragedy of Europe...

By the way, I disagree with stopping all foreign aid...

Yes with this "foreign aid" let the country be even more in debt. This is under the disguise of many many things, including intervention.

What does UKIP do when it gains power and leaves Europe though?

The entire aim of the party will be accomplished, and with no other real aims...

You are merely talking about what is heard in the media. I myself am a journalist and I can tell you for a fact, if you actually read the policies in greater detail, they are much more than let's get out of the EU, as Dan pointed out, which I shall not repeat.

[Chippiewill]

ICM: Support for Britain's established parties is splintering as UKIP hits record 18%

Err, the protest vote has always accounted for 20% in the UK.

[Grig]

Err, the protest vote has always accounted for 20% in the UK.

Valid point, but to get a party like UKIP in with that amount is a phenomenal feat. You must also account for the trends; the election is in 2015 and the UKIP have had a consistent gradient upwards. I would predict that they can come close to the 30% threshold.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Err, the protest vote has always accounted for 20% in the UK.

Couldn't one make the argument that every party is essentially a protest vote with most voters voting against another party than voting for one?

Did David Cameron win more seats on a wave of popularity or more so on a loathing of Gordon Brown? I think we both know which one.

[Ardemax]

create an informal 'English parliament' whereby English-only MPs would sit in Westminster to discuss issues relating to England.... that's just a start.

Whilst removing the Scottish and Welsh parliaments... right?

Couldn't one make the argument that every party is essentially a protest vote with most voters voting against another party than voting for one?

It's not a protest vote if there are genuine supporters of the party (Labour/Tories/Lib Dems all had genuine supporters at one point or another). I'm not denying UKIP don't, I'm just saying they need more to make any ground in parliament.

[Chippiewill]

Valid point, but to get a party like UKIP in with that amount is a phenomenal feat. You must also account for the trends; the election is in 2015 and the UKIP have had a consistent gradient upwards. I would predict that they can come close to the 30% threshold.

Two years out from a general election? Polls are meaningless, people are trying to punish their parties.

Couldn't one make the argument that every party is essentially a protest vote with most voters voting against another party than voting for one?

Did David Cameron win more seats on a wave of popularity or more so on a loathing of Gordon Brown? I think we both know which one.

I think it was more a case of, '12 years of these guys and we're doing badly, lets go with the other guys instead' rather than loathing or liking.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Two years out from a general election? Polls are meaningless, people are trying to punish their parties.

In British politics (a stable FPTP system) this is pretty amazing - only historical comparisons that exist in our system are the rise of the Labour Party in the early 1900s and the formation of the SDP in the 1980s.

Best modern day comparisons that exist are the Reform Party of early 1990s Canada and the One Nation Party of Australia in the late 1990s.

I think it was more a case of, '12 years of these guys and we're doing badly, lets go with the other guys instead' rather than loathing or liking.

So it's the same now then, '100 years of these guys and we're doing terribly, lets go with the new kids on the block instead'?

[Chippiewill]

So it's the same now then, '100 years of these guys and we're doing terribly, lets go with the new kids on the block instead'?

Except only 20% of the population is swingable so it won't do very much.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Except only 20% of the population is swingable so it won't do very much.

No idea where you get the swing voter idea from, nothing of the kind. The breakdown of UKIP support shows that the purple voters are more determined to go out for vote than other parties, the voters tend to be older and thus less likely to change their minds and more likely to vote, a sizable chunk of the vote is from people who haven't voted in more than 20 years and the core of UKIP support is mainly made of formerly core (the opposite of 'swing') Conservative voters.

Swing voters are ones in the marginal seats who usually swing between Labour and Conservative hence why they target 100 specific seats at a GE.

[Chippiewill]

The breakdown of UKIP support shows that the purple voters are more determined to go out for vote than other parties

Because they have the most to gain, people aren't going to go out and vote on safe seats. They will at the GE.