Referendum Day Minus 8: New poll by Survation out tonight

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/

This’ll be the first full poll since YouGov had YES in the lead

With the referendum now so close and the days running out the head of Survation, Damian Lyons Lowe, has added to the tension with the above Tweet about his Daily Record survey posted at about 2.30 am.

His firm has carried out more IndyRef polls for more media outlets this year than any other pollsters and his methodology has tended to show YES in quite favourable positions.

His first loyalty here is to the Daily Record which has already said that this will be published at 10.30pm.

What I’ve liked about Survation is the speed that that they get their polls out after the end of fieldwork. They were the first to complete full and publish full surveys out after both of the TV debates.

What’s significant about this latest survey is that it will be the first full poll after YES was reported to be in the lead in the YouGov poll at the weekend. Has the very fact that YES might do it had an impact on opinion?

This could be either way. It could have spurred on a YES band-wagon effect or else it could have galvanised NO.

Alas we are going to have to wait until this evening.

If he's referring to sensational as in past Survation polls - which pollsters usually do, refer to their own work - then it looks set to be bad news for the Unionists. If he's referring to YouGov and the hype in recent days over that poll, then it could mean as Mike Smithson suggested that the NO vote has swung into action in reaction to the higher likelyhood of a YES vote. Apparently the demographic group now most strongly against YES are elderly women.

Here are the normal most recent General Election polls for the meantime..

YouGov/Sun -

Labour 36%
Conservatives 30%
Ukip 16%
Liberal Democrats 8%

Lord Ashcroft -

Labour 35%
Conservatives 28%
Ukip 18%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Green Party 6%

We won't know until tonight of course, but if you want post some guesses what you think each side will have in this coming Survation poll. Get the percentages right (either including or excluding don't knows - or both) and I will give you a +rep.

Thoughts?

[Kardan]

Excluding don't knows, I'll go for 51% No, 49% Yes. I reckon it will keep swinging from one side to the other until the vote happens.

[scottish]

Excluding don't knows, I'll go for 51% No, 49% Yes. I reckon it will keep swinging from one side to the other until the vote happens.

and when it does, no will win.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Survation/Daily Record -

YES - 47%
NO - 53%

Including Don't Knows it's...

YES - 42.4%
NO - 47.6%
DON'T KNOW - 9.9%

[-:Undertaker:-]

I think it was Jen (buttons) who asked to see the vote in certain areas. Here's the Survation poll graphic from Mike Smithson.

[scottish]

Seems odd, a LOT more places seem more pro-yes than pro-no, yet polls completely different, hmm.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Seems odd, a LOT more places seem more pro-yes than pro-no, yet polls completely different, hmm.

Only two of the eight there have YES majorities?

In any case, each region will have different population sizes, turnout statistics and so on.

[scottish]

Only two of the eight there have YES majorities?

In any case, each region will have different population sizes, turnout statistics and so on.

Yeah exactly, I hear various places are pro-yes rather than pro-no, but then quite a lot no voters will stay quiet i'd imagine.

[buttons]

habbox should do competitions on this
i think final vote is gonna be 52% no 48% yes but the numbers will seem higher than they are because there wil still be non-votes.

[lemons]

when do we find out the result is it thursday night /friday??