UK General Election 2017 Megathread

[FlyingJesus]

Saw that earlier, was quite good until they started pretending that Green is actually a party worth looking at

[MKR&*42]

The greens always have such good adverts, I genuinely commend them for it. The one with playground politicians was absolutely hilarious.

[-:Undertaker:-]

The Greens always try to appeal to the yoof.

Too bad for them the yoof don't turn out.



The number of candidates each party is standing out of 650 House of Commons seats across the Kingdom -

The total number of candidates for #GE17 pic.twitter.com/NpMlpmUG3f

— PA Media (@PA) May 12, 2017

Huge drop in Ukip candidates (624 in 2015), including withdrawal from my own constituency.

This can only favour the Tories as those still identifying as voting Ukip may go to their polling booth to cast their ballot and find the party is not standing. Given the already mass collapse over to the Tories it's highly likely these voters will then place their crosses next to the Conservatives: meaning you could hypothetically add half of the remaining Ukip poll percentage to the Tories.

Here is Britain's 'realignment on the right', as 2015 Ukippers switch over to the Conservatives. Very significant. Thoughts (thread) pic.twitter.com/1BRxRGPIEL

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) May 9, 2017

[lemons]

loool tht green advert is great


but said nothing about their policies

[FlyingJesus]

Who cares about policies when we can just call each other names?

Also Lib Dems in their usual cack-handed way have given Conservatives another boost by announcing that they want to legalise weed, which will steal a few young'ns from Labour

[-:Undertaker:-]

YouGov/Sunday Times
CON 49%
LAB 31%,
LDEM 9%
UKIP 3%
Best Tory YouGov score of campaign
First LD single digit this yr
Worst Ukip since 2012

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) May 13, 2017

For all the talk of a Liberal Democrat revival via hardcore Remain voters... hasn't materialised.

The merging of Ukip and the Tory Party is nearly complete.

NEW SCOTTISH PREDICTION: UKIP standing aside helps the Conservatives in four seats, including Moray. #GE2017 pic.twitter.com/LxJiVmeauc

— Electoral Calculus (@ElectCalculus) May 14, 2017

[lawrawrrr]

I BELIEVE NO POLLS ANY MORE but 49% is an insane majority there

[dbgtz]

Nurses striking over pay
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk...-a7735451.html

Got to love this stability amirite

[-:Undertaker:-]

I BELIEVE NO POLLS ANY MORE but 49% is an insane majority there

With FPTP, the number of seats they'll pick up may be even more than a huge swing like that would usually bring in. Example being that it is likely the swing to the blues is much larger in the Brexit-voting Midlands and northern England than say London - there's more seats in those areas than London so a stronger swing in those areas will knock over more Labour seats than a uniform national swing would. FPTP can yield some strange results when it comes to geographical differences, see the replacement of Labour with SNP in 2015.

I have no evidence for this but I think polls could be overestimating Labour. I just don't buy that given the aftermath of Brexit, the leadership of Corbyn and ongoing decline of the Left that the Labour vote has stayed at the 30% mark they scored in 2015.

[FlyingJesus]

49% is a majority

Well