EU Referendum Megathread (Brexit)

[-:Undertaker:-]

This is great.

"The Single Market refers to the EU as one territory without any internal borders or other regulatory obstacles to the free movement of goods and services. A functioning Single Market stimulates competition and trade, improves efficiency, raises quality, and helps cut prices. The European Single Market is one of the EU’s greatest achievements. It has fuelled economic growth and made the everyday life of European businesses and consumers easier."

Too busy to reply in full at the moment.

The Single Market isn't complete though. For a complete Single Market as say the United States is or Australia requires EU law to extend across all industries and sectors so that includes handing over control of the City of London to regulators in Brussels. It includes extending EU control over to the services sector which is Britain's golden egg industry. That would also include joining the Eurozone. That would also include a banking union, a single energy market, permanent (large) fiscal transfers within the union from wealthier countries to the poorer ones within that said currency union, Britain subjecting itself to a Central European Bank that comes with Euro membership, the creation of a single European Treasury and much more.

Now you can see why it won't be completed. And of course the elephant in all of this which is what the Five Presidents Report proposes for the Eurozone is the ultimate creation of a political union for it to all work: in other words the end of sovereign nation states and the being of a federal Europe.

Obviously Britain cannot and will not take part in all of this. The Eurozone on the other hand, if it is to survive and not dissolve, must. Therefore if this does progress it means Britain will be in a permanent voting minority in the European Union (which it already is anyway) as the Eurozone will have to start voting even more as a coherent bloc in order to survive and implement the legislation and treaties required. This is why I keep repeating that we will be out regardless within the next decade as the political facts (on top of the economic facts I have posted) are moving in that direction. It is only a matter of time so why not leave now on our own terms?

So as I always say, the choice is between a uncertain EU which could collapse or begin to federate or retaining our independence.

> I opt for national independence.

[scottish]

so what date do we vote to stay in the EU?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Would appreciate a reply to what I have said regarding the Single Market.

The first (telephone) poll was just published today after President Hypocrite's intervention into the debate, and it shows a narrowing in favour of Leave which is good news as I was expecting a bounce for the Remain side following the threats from Obama. It is only one poll but as I said it is our first indicator following his visit/comments. Important to note the difference between telephone and online, with telephone showing higher for Remain and online higher for Leave.

ORB Phone Poll

Remain 51% (-1)
Leave 46% (+3)
Don't Know 3% (-2)

The ORB survey was a phone poll and shows REMAIN lead down from 9% to 5%

— Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) April 26, 2016

Sky poll suggests Obama's EU warning may have damaged rather than aided Remain campaign https://t.co/blfwjxrf7w pic.twitter.com/ky3in4A5G9

— Sky News (@SkyNews) April 25, 2016

People don't like being told to accept Polish and German courts overruling our own by the US President when he would never accept Mexican & Canadian judges doing the same to the US Supreme Court. Nor would the US government ever in a million years accept open borders with Panama, Cuba, Mexico and Brazil.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Interesting graph here too given what we've been discussing the past few pages. The Remain camp keeps making the claim that it is better to be part of the EU as a bloc to sign trade deals yet all the evidence (see below for a great example regarding Singapore negotiations) shows the EU is pretty bad at FTA negotiations in time + scope. As the LSE pointed out, the EU is still nowhere near a US-EU deal and the non-EU Swiss already have an FTA with China.

[abc]

The Vote Leave campaign goes on about how we were outvoted in the EU like 76 times? Well they do not mention the 2000+ times we were in majority...

This makes a good reading: https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts...-uk-influence/

[AgnesIO]

Interesting graph here too given what we've been discussing the past few pages. The Remain camp keeps making the claim that it is better to be part of the EU as a bloc to sign trade deals yet all the evidence (see below for a great example regarding Singapore negotiations) shows the EU is pretty bad at FTA negotiations in time + scope. As the LSE pointed out, the EU is still nowhere near a US-EU deal and the non-EU Swiss already have an FTA with China.

Whilst I'm not disputing that it clearly took about twice long, do you have the actual figures on what the timescale was? I mean 5 vs 10 years is huge, but 1 vs 2 months would not be such a big deal.. (I suspect it will be in the years, though...)

Also to counter your graph, it took Australia 20 years to scrap 99% of tariffs. Meanwhile, it took the EU just 5 years.

The Vote Leave campaign goes on about how we were outvoted in the EU like 76 times? Well they do not mention the 2000+ times we were in majority...

This makes a good reading: https://fullfact.org/europe/eu-facts...-uk-influence/

You mean to say that the leave camp twists everything just as much as the remain camp?

My advice to people would be to ignore both the campaigns and vote based on what you believe is better for you and you family.

[lemons]

[scottish]

looks like we're staying.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Today's @TNS_UK #euref poll leaves our Poll of Polls unchanged at Remain 50, Leave 50. 0.5/6 phone polls. https://t.co/juaJun47Yb

— What UK Thinks: EU (@whatukthinks) May 4, 2016

Combined polls showing 50/50 split. On a knife-edge with under 50 days to go.

I am cautiously optimistic for a number of factors. Firstly was the experience in Scotland where people reacted in the final weeks against the tide of completely absurd scaremongering if Scotland voted for independence (and I am a strong Unionist) as well the highly negative campaign from the pro-Union side. Secondly as with the General Election, older demographics favour Brexit more heavily and are more likely to vote which is what won the Tories the General Election. Thirdly the motivation factor.

All to play for. I've got 4,000 leaflets on the EU/NHS link ready to blitz around my very strong Labour area in the final weeks of the campaign.

[The Don]

Had a phone call yesterday from someone at Britain Stronger in Europe, will be volunteering handing out leaflets/making phone calls etc soon, just waiting to hear back from them