Cameron faces election bloodbath as shock poll reveals Farage's 44% lead over Tories

[-:Undertaker:-]

Weighting ie: changing the results based on guesswork

And it 99% of the time turns out to be more or less accurate.

[Chippiewill]

Good old telephone polling targeting a tiny number of old and unemployed people and claiming that it's representative of an entire population

I'm not saying it's perfect, but once you have weighting into account it's accurate enough to say that a 30 point lead is statistically significant.

Also the polling occurred over the weekend so unemployed doesn't really come into it (Not that you'd generally vote for UKIP if you were unemployed anyway).

[FlyingJesus]

(Not that you'd generally vote for UKIP if you were unemployed anyway).

You say this as though the majority of people who vote UKIP actually know what their policies are other than GET THOSE DARKIES OUT Nationalism is rife among the unemployed because they (as prompted by UKIP posters talking about "stealing" jobs) blame immigrants rather than themselves for all their woes

But yeah polling is still stupidly unrepresentative, and weighting makes it even more so by literally making stuff up

[-:Undertaker:-]

You say this as though the majority of people who vote UKIP actually know what their policies are other than GET THOSE DARKIES OUT Nationalism is rife among the unemployed because they (as prompted by UKIP posters talking about "stealing" jobs) blame immigrants rather than themselves for all their woes

But yeah polling is still stupidly unrepresentative, and weighting makes it even more so by literally making stuff up

So just as I thought, you are disputing the poll purely because you don't like what the poll is saying. Happens all the time.

Interesting though that you mention darkies yet Ukip's poster campaign was aimed at white European immigration. Hmmmmm.

[FlyingJesus]

Well no but do continue making stuff up that I haven't said, you do it so well

[Chippiewill]

Interesting though that you mention darkies yet Ukip's poster campaign was aimed at white European immigration. Hmmmmm.

I'm pretty certain that was a generalisation and hardly a flaw in his argument.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Well no but do continue making stuff up that I haven't said, you do it so well

Well yes because you managed a diatribe on Ukip when we're talking about polling, not whether you like Ukip. The mask slipped there Tom. At the end of the day the pollsters keep getting it right time after time and make a lot of money for it, and you're just a guy with a keyboard without a clue.

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I'm pretty certain that was a generalisation and hardly a flaw in his argument.

Oh no, that was a huge gaping hole. Just as if Tom would look at more polling he'd find attitudes towards mass immigration aren't based on skin colour, making his assumption completely wrong.

[FlyingJesus]

What is it that makes you so bad at reading Dan? The part about UKIP was quite clearly a response to what Jin said about the unemployed voting them, as you should have been able to work out quite easily by looking at what I'd quoted. You're really extremely bad at this

[-:Undertaker:-]

What is it that makes you so bad at reading Dan? The part about UKIP was quite clearly a response to what Jin said about the unemployed voting them, as you should have been able to work out quite easily by looking at what I'd quoted. You're really extremely bad at this

It's no wonder you dispute polling because it disproves virtually every assumption you've made in this thread.

I recommend a read of an academic study of Ukip's voters, backed up by polling and profiling.

The UK Independence Party (UKIP) is the most significant new party in British politics for a generation. In recent years UKIP and their charismatic leader Nigel Farage have captivated British politics, media and voters. Yet both the party and the roots of its support remain poorly understood. Where has this political revolt come from? Who is supporting them, and why? How are UKIP attempting to win over voters? And how far can their insurgency against the main parties go? Drawing on a wealth of new data – from surveys of UKIP voters to extensive interviews with party insiders – in this book prominent political scientists Robert Ford and Matthew Goodwin put UKIP's revolt under the microscope and show how many conventional wisdoms about the party and the radical right are wrong. Along the way they provide unprecedented insight into this new revolt, and deliver some crucial messages for those with an interest in the state of British politics, the radical right in Europe and political behaviour more generally.

[FlyingJesus]

Well of course you'd recommend looking at something that's got nothing to do with what I said, that's your entire debate style