UK General Election 2017 Megathread

[hungryfront]

That's not the same thing as the council, the council are the ones who actually run the place and they're Labour since 2011

The council still only gets so much money and can only do so much with that money - they have to stop spending somewhere, and Theresa wants that to be the NHS.

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[ashishverma955]

Exactly!! Agreed.

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[-:Undertaker:-]

Let's hope the historical trend isn't bucked.

In the casino of UK politics would you gamble on mass turnout among 18-24s or baby boomer ex-Kippers who have repeatedly shaped the agenda? pic.twitter.com/sXyeOX1zFp

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) May 30, 2017

You complain he's going to take us back to the 70s, yet bring up his views from years ago. We should not be focusing on a politicians past which is seemingly your only point against Jeremy Corbyn, but focusing on the party and the politician going forward and their policies, which is where Theresa May is flawed.

Hang on a second, virtually everyone of his supporters have always said we should focus on his past and his record given he's held the same views for all these years. And it's perfectly true, he has. So let's hold him to them.

He's unashamedly republican, pacifist, would hand over Ulster, the Falklands and Gibraltar. That's PM material?

You say Jeremy Corbyn is against the army, which is fantastically untrue and exaggerated, he's just against bombing people but is putting democracy above his own views.

EVERYBODY is, in an ideal fantasy world, against bombing people from The Queen to Theresa May to me. Who honestly is eager to drop bombs? But the world is more complicated than that, and certainly is when you're the head of the British government and having to take decisions with your cabinet on national security. The naive worldview of a Sixth Former who wants peace for the people's of Earth is all well and good, but no good for a prospective Prime Minister to hold.

He's on *record* as saying he wants to cut back the already-struggling Armed Forces.

Theresa May has continued to cut funding for this nation's future, when without a future, we don't really have a "strong and stable" nation. It'll collapse in a few years under her.

The cuts needed after five years of a spend thrift Corbyn government would make any cuts now seem small change.

The council still only gets so much money and can only do so much with that money - they have to stop spending somewhere, and Theresa wants that to be the NHS.

This insane worshipping of the NHS has got to stop, including from the Conservatives who are also at it. You'd think the way we go on about it that we were the only country on the planet with hospitals, doctors and nurses. Newsflash: we're not.

The NHS budget for 17/18 is £124bn. You honestly think there's no savings to be found in that gigantic budget?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Oop seems the FT got that graph wrong, here's updated with correct figures.

NEW more reliable figures on youth turnout in UK elections:
18-24s 60% in 2016 (not 36%), but 1) still lowest & 2) EUref very different vote pic.twitter.com/4Fs0qb8JEA

— John Burn-Murdoch (@jburnmurdoch) May 30, 2017

[hungryfront]

Let's hope the historical trend isn't bucked.
The NHS budget for 17/18 is £124bn. You honestly think there's no savings to be found in that gigantic budget?

That's £1771.43 per person roughly, and don't forget that has to cover staff, buildings, the actual procedure, ambulances, utilities, food, and more.

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[MKR&*42]

I go genuinely wonder how much the youth turnout will be this year, will be interesting to see.

It'd be nice to see voter turnout for all groups increase again

[-:Undertaker:-]

Andrew Hawkins, the Chaiman of ComRes pollsters, has nailed his firms predictions to the post showing that this election is as much a contest between the pollsters as the political parties. Worth a read, the last ComRes had Conservatives on 46% and Labour 34%.

This is a good read - IF voters behave broadly as did in 2015 May will have 100+ majority https://t.co/C82ECFFVLI

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) May 30, 2017

Here's an extract from his article regarding age, turnout and his conclusion.

Turnout

First, turnout. If you ask different demographic groups how likely they are to vote, the answers you get translate into behaviour in different but predictable ways. In other words, when one person says that they are a ten-out-of-ten, rock-solid certainty to vote, that does not necessarily mean the same as when another person of a different age or income group says it. The voter turnout model we developed in the wake of the 2015 General Election, when we were close (but not close enough) to the final result, adjusts for that known, observable discrepancy. We are in a minority among pollsters for doing so.

This has a direct impact on our published voting intention results. While our turnout model takes account of factors other than age, broadly speaking the Conservatives have a commanding lead among those aged over 45, while Labour is ahead among younger groups. At present, more than 60% of 18-24s say they are ‘absolutely certain’ to vote, yet only 44% did so in 2015. So you can see how easy it might be to exaggerate Labour’s vote share by overstating the propensity of young people to vote – if younger people behave in the same way they did in 2015 and indeed in previous elections. But the last time more than 60% of 18-24s voted was in 1992 – and more than 40% of them in that election voted Conservative.

Conclusion

What does all this mean for the current campaign? Very simply, if voters behave in the way they broadly did in 2015, then the Conservatives remain on track for a 100-plus majority. This seems, on present assumptions, the most likely outcome. Older people appear more motivated than younger people to vote, most of UKIP’s 2015 vote is going to the Conservatives (and that Party is not even standing in around half of all constituencies), May beats Corbyn on most ‘best for’ measures, and Labour’s core vote lacks motivation.

Old guy who criticised May over social care has said he will still vote for her. There's the 2017 general election right there folks.

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) May 29, 2017

[lemons]

Hung Parliament folks!

NEW: YouGov estimates for @thetimes show the Tory party are currently set to be 16 seats short of an overall majority #tomorrowspaperstoday pic.twitter.com/AKuxjBqaUP

— Peter Yeung (@ptr_yeung) May 30, 2017

[MKR&*42]

That can't be correct, what?!

[hungryfront]

https://twitter.com/christorwho/stat...13767007539200

Just dropping that in here.

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