Cameron faces election bloodbath as shock poll reveals Farage's 44% lead over Tories

[GommeInc]

That large percentage of people caring about immigration is weird. Usually the answer is "cost of living... because of..." or "low availability of jobs... because of..." Not "immigration is an issue", unless these people are a picnic hamper short of a full picnic. The poll(s) seem unreliable because of that :/

Clacton is a strange area. I wouldn't be surprised if he is elected in or a Conservative. It's extremely unlikely it will be a Labour, Green or Lib Dem candidate as this area is strictly Conservative with some UKIP values. If he wins it's not necessarily because he's a member of UKIP, but because he did a decent job (as far as I recall). The vote really is about whether or not people liked what he did, rather than party persuasion.

[Chippiewill]

ps 700 people from the Clacton constituency amounts to a little over 1% of the electorate. It's like asking 2 people who have been on HxF today what their views on cats are (making sure to pick only the people whose answers are likely to fit what you want to see) and claiming that it's an accurate representation of the whole lot of us

No. No it's not. That is not the way statistics work. Except when the population size is small the ratio between sample size and population size is largely irrelevant.

[FlyingJesus]

You're telling me 1% is not like 1%

[Chippiewill]

I'm telling you 1% is irrelevant.

[FlyingJesus]

Thank you for agreeing with me