EU Referendum Megathread (Brexit)

[scottish]

Also quite interesting

China Daily reports an estimate doing the rounds is that it will require 500 British negotiators and 10 years before any such deal could materialize, suggesting that the economic case for a Leave vote was never as strong as its advocates had claimed.

Chinese investors are also said to be concerned for their interests in the UK, as many chose to base their European operations in Britain to take advantage of the friendlier business climate and access to the 28-nation free market.

[-:Undertaker:-]

@scottish;

A strange estimate given non-EU Switzerland managed to sign an FTA with China after a period of 3 years.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/20...nt-with-china/

In July 2014, the free trade agreement signed between China and Switzerland formally took effect. The deal was the culmination of talks that began with a joint feasibility study in 2010, followed by nine rounds of negotiations between 2011-13. The agreement represented the second such deal by China with a European economy, (after Iceland, whose agreement also came into force in July of last year), and one of the largest of Beijing’s free trade agreements with an OECD member state.

It is worth noting that the EU currently does not have a FTA in place with China.

My bet is that the soon-to-be independent Great Britain will complete an FTA with China before/if the EU ever does. A benefit Britain has over Switzerland and Iceland is that when it comes to negotiating with Peking over this, no doubt our former colony Hong Kong (financial centre like London) will push heavily for it.

[David]

Anyone seen this

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7102596.html

Sent from my LG-D855 using Tapatalk

[scottish]

Vote split // On the #EUref result (Remain / Leave):
Happy: 4% / 92%
Unhappy: 88% / 1%
Indifferent: 7% / 5%
(via ComRes)

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 25, 2016

Interesting that more Remain voters are happy with the result than Leavers unhappy.

In time that figure will be sure to grow. A lot of people never liked the EU but fell for the scaremongering, I know them personally.



I wouldn't be pleased with it but I would accept it. At the last General Election the party I did not want into government won a thumping majority and the party I supported only got 1 MP despite coming third nationally. Did I demand another election or whinge? No I did not.



I do not think you've understood the point about the 350 million. Firstly, you're not voting on a government or manifesto you're voting on the issue. Secondly, Farage who distanced himself from the claim had nothing to do with Vote Leave. Thirdly, the claim is still valid as when we do withdraw from the European Union the government will be fit to spend that 350 million on whichever it sees fit or has a mandate to do. The NHS claim was simply saying that we would have 350 million to spend on the NHS, not that the government (whoever it is) would enact. It could be split between the NHS, defence, care of the elderly, foreign aid - whatever the elected government upon withdrawal from the EU has a mandate to spend it in.

I personally would like to see it used on defence and/or launching our own (serious) space agency as we should be a player in that but we're not.



People voted Leave because of sovereignty and immigration, not soley the (true) fact we could spend EU membership contributions elsewhere.



I wouldn't mind if the GBP dropped further as it'd help boost our exports and encourage more people to visit and invest here tbh.

Infact, there's a possibility in future years that as the Eurozone and EU continue to decay and potentially collapse, that we and Switzerland will benefit from capital flight (a good thing) from the collapsing Eurozone but which will push our currency up in a short space of time (instability).

Again, as polls have shown recently they're hugely inaccurate and how many people were polled? 30? 300? 3000? 30000? all hugely relevant imo. We've seen over past few years that those polls are often completely wrong

In time it really depends how it turns out, if our economy hits the shit then obviously everyone's going to be unhappy (apart from the Leave voters who don't notice the difference, i.e. 'the elite' as they're often called). If the UK excels then most people will be happy including Remain voters. So it's all down to how this turns out often the short-medium term.

Yes, UKIP lost and only got 1 MP but was any of the major reasons why any other party got voted get retracted immediately upon the vote? Not that I'm aware.

I understood it entirely, hence me being on the 'Remain' side Farage distanced himself from the claim after the vote was in. Are there any sources of him saying this is a flat out lie during the campaign? I would be interested to see that. The whole 'We send the EU £350 million a week, let's fund our NHS instead' and 'Let's given our NHS the £350 million the EU takes every week' were probably one of the most used propaganda pieces for Vote Leave, so obviously not everyone voted based on this but I'm sure it had a huge impact (otherwise it wouldn't be of been used...).

At the same time as increasing costs for a huge amount of imports (overall imports are about 1.65x exports, no idea on exact stats for countries as I don't have that much of an interest in looking). That would hit a lot of companies as well as ultimately the consumers.

I don't think a few pence per pound is going to affect tourism really.

There's every chance, at the same time our currency could plummet and have the our lowest valued pound we've ever had. But until that happens it's speculation.

- - - Updated - - -

Anyone seen this

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7102596.html

Sent from my LG-D855 using Tapatalk

Lmao, doesn't France want to leave too now (or at least one party)?

[scottish]

Also just came across this:

http://news.sky.com/story/1717499/ta...et-over-brexit

The bidders who were likely to take over Tata Steel (11,000 jobs) are unlikely to proceed with this after the Brexit vote.

Several bidders for Tata Steel's British operations are close to abandoning talks with their Indian owner as the outcome of the EU referendum threatens to deepen the crisis enveloping the UK's biggest steel producer.

Sky News has learnt that the billionaire tycoon Wilbur Ross, who is among seven bidders shortlisted for Tata Steel's UK business, has signalled that exiting the EU would diminish the prospects of him pursuing a takeover.

A number of other prospective buyers are understood to have similar concerns about the potential impact of Brexit on global demand for steel, the robustness of new trade deals negotiated by the Government, and the ability to sell steel produced in the UK in the European single market.

"Wilbur has been reasonably open that this deal is far less attractive if Brexit happens," said a person who has discussed the Tata Steel situation with Mr Ross.

Sources said this weekend that Tata Steel, which employs roughly 11,000 people in the UK, had raised the possibility of putting its British business into some form of liquidation, although they added that no decisions had been taken.

From what I believe majority of those 11,000 are at their largest site in Wales.

Good thing Wales voted Leave

[-:Undertaker:-]

@scottish;

That's otherwise known as bartering. He's obviously looking to push for a cheaper price. The idea that people put business off or stop trading with one another because of a political union is frankly absurd. Businessmen and investors invest because a product/service is good, not because we're in or out of the EU.

It's like in the next few months I have no doubt that some companies which have been planning layoffs anyway will put it down to "Brexit uncertainty". All spin.

https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...e?CMP=soc_3156

France by the way is one of the next likely to hold a referendum and leave, although I would put odds more likely on the Netherlands and Denmark first being non-Euro countries. I could see in the French Presidential elections Marine Le Pen pledging a vote (as she just has done) and Sarkozy/someone else matching it.

Amazing moment in Juncker press conference. BBC asks: "is this beginning of end". Junker walks off without answering to ringing applause.

— Alex Barker (@alexebarker) June 24, 2016

The Party for Freedom (PVV) is currently leading the Dutch polls and is now promising a referendum too. Netherlands GE is in March 2017.

[lemons]

.@LibDems will stand on a platform at next General Election to ensure UK is in #EU #WeAreThe48

— Tim Farron (@timfarron) June 25, 2016

interesting ! theyre obviously expecting a general election sooner than later

could lib dems rise from the ashes?

[-:Undertaker:-]

.@LibDems will stand on a platform at next General Election to ensure UK is in #EU #WeAreThe48

— Tim Farron (@timfarron) June 25, 2016

interesting ! theyre obviously expecting a general election sooner than later

could lib dems rise from the ashes?

I hope the Trading Standards Authority make them change their name then. "Democrats" :rolleyes:

[scottish]

@scottish;

That's otherwise known as bartering He's obviously looking to push for a cheaper price. The idea that people put business off or stop trading with one another because of a political union is frankly absurd. Businessmen and investors invest because a product/service is good, not because we're in or out of the EU.

It's like in the next few months I have no doubt that some companies which have been planning layoffs anyway will put it down to "Brexit uncertainty". All spin.

It's not about being in or out of the EU, it's the economic stability and trading.

As a very plain example if we're unable to freely trade with every country in the EU our exports are drastically a lot worse off (i'm unsure how much steel is sold in the UK, and how much is exported etc, but if a lot is exported then there's suddenly a seriously higher risk to owning a steel business than there was last week).

Now obviously that won't be the case, and as the article discusses the robustness of new trade agreements and ability to sell steel in the European single market will have an impact on this.

So the article seems fine, if there's good trade agreements then it may even be more favourable owning the factory. But as it stands main investors are getting cold feet due to uncertainty and I'm sure there'll be a lot more investors etc that will be in a similar position over the next few months (or years).

With regards to that comment I posted what do you think of that? http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...mment-77205935

How do you think it'll proceed from here?

Also, if we do then impose Article 50, within those 2 years do we then start trade negotiations with other countries effective from UK-EU Termination date (i.e. 2 years from date it's imposed)? Or would the trade negotiations be unable to take place until the UK-EU termination date?

[lemons]

It will be very interesting to see where both the tory and labour parties go from here because views among their MPs don't seem to be very consistent