Australia's referendum on 'The Voice' - Polls show No vote overtaking Yes

[-:Undertaker:-]

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...ial-poll-shows

No vote overtakes yes in all states except Victoria, Guardian Essential poll shows

Hard No opposition to the Indigenous voice rose in July but young people, women remain strong supporters

More Australians are planning to vote no in the Indigenous voice referendum than yes, a first for Guardian?s Essential poll.

The Essential poll of 1,150 voters released on Tuesday found that 47% did not approve of the voice, with 43% in favour and the remaining 10% unsure. That represents a reversal of July's results, which found yes narrowly ahead by the same margin.

In a further concerning sign for the yes campaign, opponents outnumbered supporters in all states except Victoria, putting the requirement for a majority of states in addition to a nationwide majority out of reach without a swing in sentiment.

On a state-by-state basis, no was ahead of yes in: Queensland, 51% to 40%; Western Australia, 48% to 39%; New South Wales, 47% to 41%; and South Australia 48% to 45%. In Victoria, yes was narrowly ahead 47% to 46%.

TDLR; So basically for anyone who doesn't know what this is, this autumn Australia is to vote on a constitutional referendum to decide whether there should be 'consultation' of Australian aboriginals on laws passed by the Australian Commonwealth Parliament. The Australian constitution requires over 50%+ nationally for a referendum to pass, in addition to at least 4 out of the 6 Australian states also having 50%+.

My view; Now I have been following this for a while and the Yes camp was leading the polls by a massive margin only a few months ago, but having paid close attention to the EU referendum campaign in 2016 (and been involved) I suspected that what's happening now with the narrowing in the polls and crossover would happen. I'm now seeing Yes supporters on Twitter lashing out at the Australian public calling them stupid because it appears that the referendum is going to fail.

Just as important as defeating this racial constititional veto, is the fact that defeating this Voice will also mean it is highly unlikely that the Labour government will push for a second republic referendum on the Australian monarchy. If they can't win this referendum, then the chances of a republic passing are even slimmer than they were in the 1999 referendum when the monarchy defeated the republic.

Thoughts?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Date of the referendum has been announced for the 14th October.

Latest polling suggests it'll struggle to win a majority in any Australian state, with even the state of Victoria looking shaky.

The campaign is now playing out how the EU referendum played out too. You've got trendy celebrities and institutions piling in to support Yes, howls of racism at anyone who dissents and now institutions like the AFL are keeping the Yes campaign at arms length as they fear booing at matches from working class people if they show public support for Yes - much like the CBI in Britain kept its distance from Remain after feeling which way the wind was blowing.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Latest poll has Yes down to 39% and No at 61% - quite shocking when Yes was at 70%+ as recently as February.

An exclusive new poll has found that support for the Voice to Parliament is in ‘freefall’, and is now below 40 per cent in every state except one > https://t.co/w35cafPvpd pic.twitter.com/INhDaWu4YX

— Herald Sun (@theheraldsun) September 8, 2023

[-:Undertaker:-]

Latest poll out is interesting as it suggests the Yes vote is growing softer as momentum has swung against it.

Early days still and never count your chickens early, but it is worth pondering what will happen to PM Anthony Albanese if he loses given he's devoted so much of his premiership to not only holding the referendum, but a particular (Yes) outcome. Former PM John Howard survived in 1999 because he was on the winning side of the referendum when the republic was defeated at the ballot box.

I have seen various accusations and exchanges on social media and in articles that the Yes camp are throwing the 'racist' slur around a lot now, as well as calling the Australian public stupid, and insisting they're winning because they can get people out to protest. All what I guessed months back how it might play out. It's sounding more and more similar to the Remain campaign in the dying weeks and days of the EU referendum in 2016.

#Essential Voice to Parliament

Yes 41 (-1) No 51 (+3) (=44.6 2AP)

Hard Yes 28 (-2) Hard No 42 (+1)

Essential has on average had higher Yes results than other major pollsters.

— Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) September 18, 2023

Former prime minister John Howard slammed the Albanese government’s failure to explain key Voice to Parliament details as “patronising” and “insulting to the Australian people”.https://t.co/wzHdmwKKsG

— Sky News Australia (@SkyNewsAust) September 14, 2023

[-:Undertaker:-]

Only 4 more days to go. Australia goes to the polls this Saturday in her first constitutional referendum since 1999.

A reminder that to pass, a constitutional change requires nationally 50%+ and a majority in at least 4 Australian states.

We’ve conducted a large poll in Australia (the largest public one of the campaign except YouGov) to assess “The Voice” referendum. The result looks comprehensive for No at 61/39. We’ve also done an MrP on the data and it looks like only 22 of Australia’s seats are for yes. pic.twitter.com/ohu25Iafqr

— James Kanagasooriam (@JamesKanag) October 7, 2023

[-:Undertaker:-]

It's early morning in Australia and the polls are now open.

The latest and likely last poll on the referendum is below.

Interestingly New Zealanders also go the polls today in their General Election.

#Newspoll Voice To Parliament
Yes 37
No 57

— Kevin Bonham (@kevinbonham) October 13, 2023