-:Undertaker:-
11-02-2019, 09:46 PM
Two pieces tonight, one by ITV's Robert Peston and another, very detailed, in the Huffington Post.
1095014218364059648
1095016259371057153
1095018564275318789
Imagine you are in the Prime Minister's position. Your two choices and probable consequences are;
Option 1 - Push through the existing Withdrawal Agreement by watering it down with Labour support...
- Would detonate the Conservative Party, both in Parliament and out in the country. A formal split.
- The DUP would immediately withdraw their Confidence + Supply meaning the government would collapse within days.
- You'd be facing the very real certainty of a far-left Corbyn government as the Tory Party collapse and splits.
- Huge constitutional problems down the road in regards to Northern Ireland.
Option 2 - If the EU does not budge on the Backstop, accept and go for a No Deal...
- Face the unknown(?) consequences of No Deal.
- Ability to blame any consequences on the European Union and Parliament/Opposition, aka "I tried"
- Tory Party largely holds together with exception of maybe less than 5 already-disloyal Remainers jumping.
- Continue in government with the DUP until 2022.
- Endear yourself to the Tory right to serve out your term until 2022.
This has been my calculation for a while, what do you think will happen? No Deal, her Deal? Other?
45 days left.
1095014218364059648
1095016259371057153
1095018564275318789
Imagine you are in the Prime Minister's position. Your two choices and probable consequences are;
Option 1 - Push through the existing Withdrawal Agreement by watering it down with Labour support...
- Would detonate the Conservative Party, both in Parliament and out in the country. A formal split.
- The DUP would immediately withdraw their Confidence + Supply meaning the government would collapse within days.
- You'd be facing the very real certainty of a far-left Corbyn government as the Tory Party collapse and splits.
- Huge constitutional problems down the road in regards to Northern Ireland.
Option 2 - If the EU does not budge on the Backstop, accept and go for a No Deal...
- Face the unknown(?) consequences of No Deal.
- Ability to blame any consequences on the European Union and Parliament/Opposition, aka "I tried"
- Tory Party largely holds together with exception of maybe less than 5 already-disloyal Remainers jumping.
- Continue in government with the DUP until 2022.
- Endear yourself to the Tory right to serve out your term until 2022.
This has been my calculation for a while, what do you think will happen? No Deal, her Deal? Other?
45 days left.