45 Days: Number 10 "turning to No Deal"

[-:Undertaker:-]

Two pieces tonight, one by ITV's Robert Peston and another, very detailed, in the Huffington Post.

Theresa May is now seriously contemplating a no-deal Brexit. Here's the story of why:https://t.co/WFDKKd60Ql

— Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) February 11, 2019

TLDR:
If you're a Remainer, be afraid, be very afraid.
If you're a 'clean Brexit' Leaver, you'll be delighted.
The PM is being swayed by internal polls/focus groups showing she's more popular when she flags no-deal.

— Paul Waugh MP (@paulwaugh) February 11, 2019

Why a no-deal Brexit is likely - ITV News https://t.co/UzJyqUY3xT

— Robert Peston (@Peston) February 11, 2019

Imagine you are in the Prime Minister's position. Your two choices and probable consequences are;


Option 1 - Push through the existing Withdrawal Agreement by watering it down with Labour support...

- Would detonate the Conservative Party, both in Parliament and out in the country. A formal split.
- The DUP would immediately withdraw their Confidence + Supply meaning the government would collapse within days.
- You'd be facing the very real certainty of a far-left Corbyn government as the Tory Party collapse and splits.
- Huge constitutional problems down the road in regards to Northern Ireland.

Option 2 - If the EU does not budge on the Backstop, accept and go for a No Deal...

- Face the unknown(?) consequences of No Deal.
- Ability to blame any consequences on the European Union and Parliament/Opposition, aka "I tried"
- Tory Party largely holds together with exception of maybe less than 5 already-disloyal Remainers jumping.
- Continue in government with the DUP until 2022.
- Endear yourself to the Tory right to serve out your term until 2022.


This has been my calculation for a while, what do you think will happen? No Deal, her Deal? Other?

45 days left.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Today yet more parliamentary drama as the government defeated. Rumours swirling of Lab+Con Blairite MPs about to defect.

Meanwhile the clock, now at 42 days, ticks relentlessly down to the No Deal legal default.

So @theresa_may suffers yet another humiliating defeat by 303 to 258. @jeremycorbyn says it shows there is no majority for @theresa_may's Brexit strategy. That is certainly how the EU 27's leaders will see it. This is a serious blow to her ability to get any deal approved

— Robert Peston (@Peston) February 14, 2019

Whilst pressure between factions in both major parties is reaching breaking point. And as for Anna Soubry MP she may be wrong about pretty much everything, but she's right here - why does she think people like me joined the Tory Party and are now members? To hold it to account and to make sure it represents the bulk of conservative opinion in this country. Purple rain indeed Anna.

"We can see the party system breaking apart... the MPs are in turmoil but public opinion isn't changing. People still back Brexit."

- Spectator editor Fraser Nelson@FraserNelson | @maitlis | #InsideThePapers pic.twitter.com/B6u90V3H7n

— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) February 14, 2019

"They are in control of the associations. We have a purple momentum... Instead of standing up to this we are falling into the same trap as Labour. Both main parties are broken."

Anna Soubry on why the PM is more responsive to the ERG@maitlis | @Anna_Soubry | #newsnight pic.twitter.com/3krETsNNue

— BBC Newsnight (@BBCNewsnight) February 14, 2019