ICM: Support for Britain's established parties is splintering as UKIP hits record 18%

[AgnesIO]

Oh my.

Well who else has any chance, if your own words are true?

Labour won't ever leave - rules them out
Lib Dems have zero chance of getting a majority
UKIP have zero chance of getting a majority
That leaves errr the Conservatives.

[-:Undertaker:-]

The problem is the Tory party is in shambles over this, they are showing how weak, disjointed and poorly managed they really are. There is no true statesman leading it and the fact that quite a few MPs are talking about jumping ship makes them even more of a lame duck party.

But the Tories are nothing, Labour is even worse and it is stupid how people decide just because the Tories are doing badly, they will simply jump to Labour. Labour have no concrete policies and if Mr. Miliband comes to power, he'll be worse than Gordon Brown- you can take my word for it.

It's still too early to tell what will happen in 2015 because the political environment is extremely volatile and dynamic. But, if we remain in a state of status quo, then the UKIP can start preparing for their Parliament debut. Although, I have a feeling this will come earlier, particularly if a few disgruntled Tory lawmakers actually decide to join the UKIP.

I agree completely with the analysis, but I don't even think this is about leadership anymore - the fact is that the Tory Party is so divided on so many issues (and the rift over Europe can never be healed as both sides hold absolute principles over it) that it really is time for it to collapse and split. It's name is ruined, its unmanageable and its a failure.

Time for it to go the way of the old Canadian Conservative Party. This is a good article on the Tories - http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisf.../tories-europe saying a formal split over Europe is rather likely.

Well who else has any chance, if your own words are true?

Labour won't ever leave - rules them out
Lib Dems have zero chance of getting a majority
UKIP have zero chance of getting a majority
That leaves errr the Conservatives.

Why would the Conservatives lead us through the exit door? if one were to place any bets on which party would have us leave out of the main three, it'd be Labour because at least Labour have previously been against the EU and at least Labour have given us a referendum on the issue in the past.

As for UKIP leading us out, really? on a uniform swing UKIP only needs 34% to achieve a parliamentary majority. Last nights record breaking polls are as follows...

Opinium -

LAB 37%
CON 27%
UKIP 20%
LDEM 7%

ComRes -

LAB 35%
CON 29%
UKIP 19%
LDEM 9%

[GommeInc]

Why would the Conservatives lead us through the exit door? if one were to place any bets on which party would have us leave out of the main three, it'd be Labour because at least Labour have previously been against the EU and at least Labour have given us a referendum on the issue in the past.

I was of the opinion Labour were Pro-EU :/ They didn't exactly criticise it throughout their times in Parliament. Might of not noticed though. By definition the Conservatives should be, but they're unsure what they believe in any more

[-:Undertaker:-]

I was of the opinion Labour were Pro-EU :/ They didn't exactly criticise it throughout their times in Parliament. Might of not noticed though. By definition the Conservatives should be, but they're unsure what they believe in any more

Oh Labour are avidly pro-EU now, just they never used to be. That's my point really - there's a delusion amongst Conservatives that the Tory Party has historically been standing up for Britain in Europe and is a patriotic party that wouldn't surrender powers to the EU when they are the exact opposite. The Tories have the worst history on the EU - Thatcher after all was brought down by the issue and knifed by her own party when she dared to stand in its [the EU] way.

[AgnesIO]

Oh Labour are avidly pro-EU now, just they never used to be. That's my point really - there's a delusion amongst Conservatives that the Tory Party has historically been standing up for Britain in Europe and is a patriotic party that wouldn't surrender powers to the EU when they are the exact opposite. The Tories have the worst history on the EU - Thatcher after all was brought down by the issue and knifed by her own party when she dared to stand in its [the EU] way.

She also supported the expansion of the EU...

----

A deluded view to suggest Labour would leave - whether they were historically against Europe or not, they are not NOW (when it matters!)

Also UKIP may "only" need 34%, but they simply won't achieve that. No matter what you might like to think, they are not that big a party.

[-:Undertaker:-]

She also supported the expansion of the EU...

Indeed, and she signed the Single European Act. Whether or not she initially suppported the project is unknown, perhaps she knew of its ultimate intentions and thought they would never come about - either way, towards the end of her term in office she 'woke up' and began the modern day fight that we're still having today over our countrys sovereignty and independence. That's why I forgive her for it.

She was after all active in the Bruges Group (of which the Anti-Federalist League was borne out of, which then morphed into UKIP) well into her later years and remained honourary President of the group.

A deluded view to suggest Labour would leave - whether they were historically against Europe or not, they are not NOW (when it matters!)

I'm not suggesting they would, just that going by history there's more a chance of them pulling us out than the useless Tories.

Also UKIP may "only" need 34%, but they simply won't achieve that. No matter what you might like to think, they are not that big a party.

The then-ruling Liberal Party had the same opinion of the newly-formed Labour Party in the early 1900s.

[AgnesIO]

Indeed, and she signed the Single European Act. Whether or not she initially suppported the project is unknown, perhaps she knew of its ultimate intentions and thought they would never come about - either way, towards the end of her term in office she 'woke up' and began the modern day fight that we're still having today over our countrys sovereignty and independence. That's why I forgive her for it.

She was after all active in the Bruges Group (of which the Anti-Federalist League was borne out of, which then morphed into UKIP) well into her later years and remained honourary President of the group.



I'm not suggesting they would, just that going by history there's more a chance of them pulling us out than the useless Tories.



The then-ruling Liberal Party had the same opinion of the newly-formed Labour Party in the early 1900s.

What does UKIP do when it gains power and leaves Europe though?

The entire aim of the party will be accomplished, and with no other real aims...

[-:Undertaker:-]

What does UKIP do when it gains power and leaves Europe though?

The entire aim of the party will be accomplished, and with no other real aims...

Grammar schools, reform of immigration laws, a sensible energy policy, cut state spending to sustainable levels, simplify the tax code, introduce a two-tier flat tax, slash red tape to get business moving, abolish most quangos, end state funding of lobby groups dressed up as charities, introduce a system of local and national direct democracy based on the Swiss model, end the doctrine of multiculturalism and promote integration, end foreign aid payments, end involvement in foreign wars that are none of our concern, protect civil liberties by opposing extreme anti-terror laws, create an informal 'English parliament' whereby English-only MPs would sit in Westminster to discuss issues relating to England.... that's just a start.

Much more than the Tories anyway, who seem to only want to gain office for the sake of office.

[AgnesIO]

Grammar schools, reform of immigration laws, a sensible energy policy, cut state spending to sustainable levels, simplify the tax code, introduce a two-tier flat tax, slash red tape to get business moving, abolish most quangos, end state funding of lobby groups dressed up as charities, introduce a system of local and national direct democracy based on the Swiss model, end the doctrine of multiculturalism and promote integration, end foreign aid payments, end involvement in foreign wars that are none of our concern, protect civil liberties by opposing extreme anti-terror laws, create an informal 'English parliament' whereby English-only MPs would sit in Westminster to discuss issues relating to England.... that's just a start.

Much more than the Tories anyway, who seem to only want to gain office for the sake of office.

Why doesn't Nigel Farage ever talk about these? All you ever hear him banging on about is the tragedy of Europe...

By the way, I disagree with stopping all foreign aid...

[-:Undertaker:-]

Why doesn't Nigel Farage ever talk about these? All you ever hear him banging on about is the tragedy of Europe...

He often does talk about them - mainly grammar schools, wind turbines, Europe, state spending and gay marriage.

Infact what i'm about to post in this forum, he briefly mentions a few of them.

By the way, I disagree with stopping all foreign aid...

Of course you do - and thats why you back the Conservative Party.