Cameron faces election bloodbath as shock poll reveals Farage's 44% lead over Tories

[FlyingJesus]

Yeah what's the point in sourcing things and having a proper discussion about what's been written when you can just make stuff up about your opponent and derail

Proof of 1% of the electorate well done

[-:Undertaker:-]

Yeah what's the point in sourcing things and having a proper discussion about what's been written when you can just make stuff up about your opponent and derail

Proof of 1% of the electorate well done

We'll see who is right come election day: me, Chippiewill, the pollsters, politics wonks and the betting markets - or you.

[FlyingJesus]

It's not an either/or situation though since I haven't refuted that this may happen, just that the methodology is stupid

[Kardan]

So do you think UKIP will have a 44% lead over the Tories in the by-election?

[-:Undertaker:-]

It's not an either/or situation though since I haven't refuted that this may happen, just that the methodology is stupid

You'd be able to call it stupid if their methodology got it wrong all of the time, but the opposite is true. It's highly accurate.

I'm sure the very rich and experienced pollsters will sleep well though despite you calling their methods 'stupid'.

So do you think UKIP will have a 44% lead over the Tories in the by-election?

If it were being held today/tomorrow or within this week, I would put a large bet on that happening. Yes absolutely.

[FlyingJesus]

If you ever actually cared to discuss why it's a good system (despite asking 1% of an electorate what they think and targeting specific areas of that electorate through their methods) rather than just repeating IT WORKS I PROMISE THEY'RE RIGHT that would be superb

[Kardan]

You'd be able to call it stupid if their methodology got it wrong all of the time, but the opposite is true. It's highly accurate.

I'm sure the very rich and experienced pollsters will sleep well though despite you calling their methods 'stupid'.



If it were being held today/tomorrow or within this week, I would put a large bet on that happening. Yes absolutely.

But it's not So you agree with me, that you don't think they will get a 44% lead by the time the election happens? What do you reckon it will be? I'd hazard a guess at maybe 20/25.

[-:Undertaker:-]

If you ever actually cared to discuss why it's a good system (despite asking 1% of an electorate what they think and targeting specific areas of that electorate through their methods) rather than just repeating IT WORKS I PROMISE THEY'RE RIGHT that would be superb

It's a good system exactly because it does work. It's as simple as that, really.

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But it's not So you agree with me, that you don't think they will get a 44% lead by the time the election happens? What do you reckon it will be? I'd hazard a guess at maybe 20/25.

I haven't a clue, polling will tell us nearer the time. Mike Smithson of Political Betting made a point the other day that the Ukip lead could potentially increase as the campaign goes on as a lot of loyal Tories once they see the polls that Ukip are ahead may decide to jump ship too.

The lead could also increase if loyal Tories/Labour voters see the polls and decide there's really no point in even bothering to vote.

But then again it could all go **** up for the purples, after all a week is a long time in politics.

[FlyingJesus]

It's not as simple as that, that's the entire point you're once again using a "just because" argument, even though you're quite openly admitting that these things are likely to change dramatically. I could release a guess of my own saying BUT IF IT HAPPENED NOW LIB DEMS WOULD GET 504% OF THE VOTES BECAUSE I DREAMT IT and then nearer the time say something completely different and claim that all of my statements have been scientifically proven to be true

[-:Undertaker:-]

It's not as simple as that, that's the entire point you're once again using a "just because" argument, even though you're quite openly admitting that these things are likely to change dramatically. I could release a guess of my own saying BUT IF IT HAPPENED NOW LIB DEMS WOULD GET 504% OF THE VOTES BECAUSE I DREAMT IT and then nearer the time say something completely different and claim that all of my statements have been scientifically proven to be true

Because opinion polls are a snap shot of public opinion at any given time, an election of course has so many scenarios and variables that there is huge scope change to happen in voter opinion. That said, in some elections the polls barely shift from the start of the campaign to the end.