Wars of Scottish Independence!

[buttons]

so i assume they'll be doing a eurovision thing where they get the results from each council and add it up all throughout, so we will see which way it's headed half way through. I'll keep an updated thread probably as I'll be staying up

[-:Undertaker:-]

so i assume they'll be doing a eurovision thing where they get the results from each council and add it up all throughout, so we will see which way it's headed half way through. I'll keep an updated thread probably as I'll be staying up

We can often tell with the first few results which way it is going to go, or we can project the result, ie if a certain area surprises us with a strong YES vote, then the one after and so on. It's like in the Local Elections 2014, Ukip did very well in Sunderland and Doncaster so it indicated a good night and it was. Then again, go back to the 1992 General Election and it took everybody by surprise as the night went on.

A lot was learnt by broadcasters and pollsters from that night though resulting in huge methodology changes, as Major won easily with 336 seats.

[buttons]

is that when they thought labour were gonna win narrowly but conservative went on to win by a bit?

nvm saw ur vid!! it's gna be exciting regardless, it's crazy cause early polls were saying Aberdeen n aberdeenshire are most likely to vote no and now it's 7 and 4 yes rating

Nvm again
'ps. I’ve subsequently got hold of a copy of the report concerned. To quote the methodology for determining the “Yes” rating, it’s


“derived from support for the Scottish National Party in the 2012 local elections. We… show a range from 0 (the lowest local vote [share] for SNP in 2012, excluding Orkney and Shetland where the vote was negligible) to 10 (highest local vote share for SNP).”

Ah well that makes sense, north east was all snp

[-:Undertaker:-]

is that when they thought labour were gonna win narrowly but conservative went on to win by a bit?

nvm saw ur vid!! it's gna be exciting regardless, it's crazy cause early polls were saying Aberdeen n aberdeenshire are most likely to vote no and now it's 7 and 4 yes rating

Indeed. It was explained by the 'shy Tory' vote in which people wouldn't admit to the pollsters that they'd voted Conservative so they polled lower in both the polling and the exit polls. A lot are predicting a 'shy No' vote with the referendum tomorrow. We'll have to wait and see.

The Director of ICM, Martin Boon, is fearful of a 'Waterloo' for polling companies tomorrow. Referendums are always risky in polling.

[buttons]

yeah they're saying yes is over represented because no voters are saying yes in polls just to make others happy which weirdly enough was the opposite for me. said I was undecided and would probably be voting no even tho I was a yes just cause of the backlash Id seen other yes voters get. No's are not that silent on twitter lol. Apparently some people don't even have their postal vote through their doors yet :S

[Mark]

Three polls out today put No at 52%, I reckon it'll be close but No will prevail. Going to my local council's vote count

[A4R0N]

this is the timetable of when the results of each councils ballot is announced



Not sure what the yes rating is? My council is at 3am (7 rating) and my city at 6am (4 rating) ahhhh I wanna watch it all, if it'll be on tv?
@A4R0N; @-:Undertaker:-;

also pub licenses being issued to allow them to stay open til later

IM SO EXCITED

[AgnesIO]

I concede that I typed without thinking. Let me say that I assume that those in a country living below the poverty line are, for all intents and purposes, starving or close-to.

India's population is 1.21 billion, their percentage of people living in poverty is 68%. 822,800,000. Not quite a billion, I'll concede.

China's population is 1.355 billion. Their percentage of people living in poverty is 27%. 365,850,000.


You were right in your correction of my figure for India; wrong in your correction of my global figure. I didn't even get -started- on Africa

Your figures depend hugely on which estimates you believe (although I do believe that the poverty level is higher than most estimates predict).

Have you also heard of the rising middle class in India? It's huge, and it is growing at an incredible rate.

Increased Caste and religious violence, increased poverty levels, rampant crime, a partition along religious lines that created Bangladesh...remind me how exactly India has improved, other than the fact that there are now a couple of millionaires to complement the billion starving people?

Yeah, there is caste and religious violence. There is also this in most of the countries in South East Asia, that are home to Buddhists, Muslims and Christians.

Between 1953 and 2006 the murder rate has increased by 7%, and the kidnapping rate has also vastly increased (although still minimal). BUT the burglary rate has fallen by 80%, along with various other statistics. Those figures are then all completely irrelevant when you look at the HUGE differences from state to state.

You are also aware Bangladesh was previously Pakistan, not India, right?

Lastly, the majority of estimates suggest poverty levels have fallen, not risen.

- - - Updated - - -

Only since the 1990s when it dropped socialism and turned to the free market, prior to that India had actually gone backwards like much of Africa has since the end of Empire. That said, although India has been doing better: it could still do a lot better like China has done.

Oh of course - it could do a lot better. There are loads of things that India could improve itself on (scrap the ridiculous movie star = politician phenomenon for a start!!) - but for the other user to suggest it is all going backwards is quite simply arrogant and uneducated.

[Kimmy]

The replies to this are brilliant!
Can't wait to update a new one when the vote is out. ;D

[Kardan]

Edit: That made no sense. Re-phrase: Even if we eschew the statistic of one billion starving people, as it was largely irrelevant to the broader point I was making, do you think that India is better or worse, in a utilitarian sense?

I don't really have an opinion on that. My point was simply Poverty =/= Starving. They can't be used interchangeably.

As for the referendum, it's getting exciting now. I want 'No' to win, but I must admit, the curiosity is there for a 'Yes' vote, just because I do wonder if Scotland would be better off in 10 years time, and if they're not, what would the reaction be from the people that voted for independence.