Mark Reckless sworn in as 2nd Ukip MP after winning Rochester

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30094244
http://www.theguardian.com/news/data...ood-byelection

Rochester and Strood by-election: campaigning enters final stages

If polls are right, Ukip will walk the Rochester and Strood by-election

The most recent polls show Ukip leading the Conservatives in Rochester and Strood by a comfortable 13, 15 and 12 points respectively. A month ago the outcome of the byelection wasn’t so obvious - and this matters

Around the time of the Clacton byelection a poll by Survation on Thursday’s vote in Rochester and Strood had Ukip on 40%, nine points ahead of the Conservatives. Labour were on 25%.

The Rochester and Strood byelection was seen by many as a potential dress rehearsal ahead of next year’s general election - a relatively safe seat that had the makings of a potential three-horse race. Despite Ukip’s nine-point lead, the underlying trends in Rochester and Strood were viewed very differently to Clacton, which, in theory at least, made the race an uncertain one.

Rochester and Strood is a constituency where the local candidate isn’t as strong as in Clacton: 70% of those who intend to vote Ukip like the party’s policies, 12% like Mark Reckless.

Nearly 25% of the Ukip support in the Survation poll were non-voters in 2010. Meaning the vote is seen as an indication of Ukip’s ability to attract non-voters, and translate intent into actual vote.

The uncertainty of the outcome at the time is further compounded by the number of conservative MPs and ministers that have visited the constituency - or more precisely, by the number asked to visit Rochester and Strood. The New Statesman reports that the Prime Minister has instructed his MPs to visit the constituency “at least three times”, with cabinet members and whips visiting at least five times. A clear sign of both the significance of Thursday’s vote, and the Tories’ belief that they could win the byelection.

Rochester and Strood is also an important test for the Conservatives in terms of defending a seat that hadn’t previously figured highly in places favourable to Ukip based on demographic factors.

Labour held the predecessor seat to Rochester and Strood for 13 years, up until 2010. While the boundary changes, and therefore the demographic makeup of the constituency, make for an uneasy comparison, Ed Miliband’s party would be expected to put in a good showing in the area.

One month is a very, very long time in politics

Since the Clacton byelection there have been three Rochester and Strood polls.

A ComRes poll released on 21 October had Ukip on 43%, 13 points ahead of the Conservatives. Figures released a week later by Survation showed a 15 point gap, with Ukip on 48%. In the most recent numbers, from a Lord Ashcroft poll published on 11 November, Ukip lead the Conservatives by 44% to 32%.

With margins of 13, 15, and 12 points, Ukip’s lead has clearly widened since Clacton voted.

Labour was on 21%, 16%, and 17% in the three polls. On the one hand, Ed Miliband’s party has set the bar of expectation in Rochester and Strood so low that probably only finishing behind the Liberal Democrats (on 3%, 1%, and 2% respectively in the three sets of figures) or the Greens would be considered bad news. In the longer-term though, looking ahead at May next year, the drop in support for Labour across these polls, if confirmed on Thursday, is further evidence that Ukip’s vote is now coming from both main parties. YouGov analysis has found that the proportion of Ukip voters coming from the Labour party has trebled since January 2013, from 7% to 23%. While this is still lower than Tory converts (36%), compared to earlier Ukip support, Nigel Farage’s votes are now more widely distributed.

For the Conservatives anything but a win will be seen as a defeat

The only silver lining for David Cameron is that when respondents in Lord Ashcroft’s Rochester and Strood poll were asked how they would vote next May, 36% said Conservatives, 35% Ukip (with Labour on 21%, and the Lib Dems on 2%, behind the Greens, on 5%). It may be a short-lasting consolation though. If as expected, Mark Reckless delivers Ukip’s second Westminster seat, reports on who might defect next among the most rebellious Tory MPs are likely to get louder.

Tomorrow the polls open and tomorrow night the results will be counted, with the outcome being apparent around 12 to 3am. The last polls put Ukip ahead in the seat, relying on a coalition of ex-Labour and non-voters to win the seat: one which is judged by academics to be the 271st most favourable seat in the country in terms of demographics etc.

Background information is that the seat used to be held by Labour until 2005 (boundary changes took place at same time) and has been held by the Tories by a comfortable margin ever since. Not sure whether i'm staying up for it considering how my sleeping pattern is fabulous at the moment, but we'll see.

If I see any more good analysis out tomorrow I may post below, but yeah should be an interesting one this.

Thoughts?

[Chippiewill]

Not too much point in staying up to watch it, the result is pretty obvious.

[AgnesIO]

*CONTENT REMOVED*

Edited by Drewar (Forum Moderator) ~ Please do not post inappropriate comments.

[dbgtz]

Only semi-related, but it would be interesting to see these+other results with proportional representation.

[Alkaz]

Rochester is literally a 5 min drive from the town I live in. People are more interested in people breaking into the local swimming pool for a late night swim than this election. It's good for UK I though.

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...tion-Ukip.html

Mark Reckless takes his seat in the Commons as Ukip's second MP hours after winning Rochester by-election by sweeping away Tory majority of almost 10,000

- Mark Reckless held his Rochester and Strood seat after changing parties with 16,867 votes - a majority of 2,920
- He defected on the eve of the Tory party conference, and David Cameron vowed to lead the fight to defeat him
- Ukip leader Nigel Farage said: 'All bets are off for a general election next year. Literally anything can happen'
- The Conservatives came second with 13,947 votes. Labour came third with 6,713 overall turnout was 50.67 percent
- With 1,692 votes, the Green Party outpolled the Lib Dems by almost five to one to move into fourth place
- Liberal Democrats continued a humiliating string of by-election performances, with just 349 votes

Ukip did not stand in Rochester and Strood in 2010, when Mr Reckless secured a majority of almost 10,000. It means the Tories lost 14 per cent of the vote in the by-election

Tory defector Mark Reckless was today sworn in as Britain's second Ukip MP, hours after delivering a devastating blow to the Conservatives by winning the Rochester and Strood by-election.

He declared that Ukip will 'give you back your country' after winning his seat by 2,920 votes, erasing the Tory majority of almost 10,000 that he secured in 2010.

In his acceptance speech, Mr Reckless said: 'If we can win here, we can win across the country. If you vote Ukip, you get Ukip.'

Jubilant Nigel Farage punched the air and declared that the 'massive, massive' win in what he called a 'David v Goliath battle' meant 'all bets are off' for the general election in 2015.

The result is embarrassing for David Cameron who just six weeks ago tore into Mr Reckless and vowed to kick his 'fat a***' out of the Commons. Today the Prime Minister insisted he is 'absolutely determined' to win the seat back at the general election.

Mark Reckless today swore his allegiance to the Queen to take his seat in the Commons, hours after his by-election triumph in Rochester and Strood


A jubilant Nigel Farage celebrates the victory of Tory defector Mark Reckless who became Ukip's second elected MP in a devastating blow to the Conservatives

Mr Reckless beat Tory candidate Kelly Tolhurst, with Labour pushed into third. He follows Douglas Carswell into the Commons, after he became Ukip's first elected MP after defecting in August.

The Liberal Democrats continued a humiliating string of by-election performances, finishing fifth behind the Greens with just 349 votes and losing another deposit. Turnout was 50.67 per cent.

Commons Speaker John Bercow interrupted proceedings in the Chamber to announce that a new MP was to take his seat. Mr Reckless was accompanied by Mr Carswell and Tory Eurosceptic MP Philip Hollobone, who has denied he plans to defect.

Earlier Mr Reckless said his victory had proved that Ukip could win nationwide and urged voters to ensure enough MPs were elected to hold the balance of power after 2015.

'Whichever constituency, whatever your former party allegiance, think of what it would mean to have a bloc of Ukip MPs at Westminster large enough to hold the balance of power,' he said.

'If you believe in freedom, if you believe in low taxes, if you believe in clean government, if you believe in localism, if you believe in people power.

'If you believe that the world is bigger than Europe, if you believe in an independent Britain, then come with us and we will give you back your country.'

He added: 'If we can win here, we can win across the country. If you vote Ukip, you get Ukip.'

He said the large number of Labour voters who switched their support to him showed that 'the radical tradition, which has stood and spoken for the working class, has found a new home in Ukip'.

'As Labour represents those comfortable at the top of the public sector, it is not Ed Miliband but Ukip that represents the concerns of most working men and women,' he declared from the stage after a six-hour count.

Not a bad result from a standing start and in the 271st Ukip-friendly seat, although the Tory vote held up better than the polls stated.

[AgnesIO]

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...tion-Ukip.html

Mark Reckless takes his seat in the Commons as Ukip's second MP hours after winning Rochester by-election by sweeping away Tory majority of almost 10,000

- Mark Reckless held his Rochester and Strood seat after changing parties with 16,867 votes - a majority of 2,920
- He defected on the eve of the Tory party conference, and David Cameron vowed to lead the fight to defeat him
- Ukip leader Nigel Farage said: 'All bets are off for a general election next year. Literally anything can happen'
- The Conservatives came second with 13,947 votes. Labour came third with 6,713 overall turnout was 50.67 percent
- With 1,692 votes, the Green Party outpolled the Lib Dems by almost five to one to move into fourth place
- Liberal Democrats continued a humiliating string of by-election performances, with just 349 votes

Ukip did not stand in Rochester and Strood in 2010, when Mr Reckless secured a majority of almost 10,000. It means the Tories lost 14 per cent of the vote in the by-election




Mark Reckless today swore his allegiance to the Queen to take his seat in the Commons, hours after his by-election triumph in Rochester and Strood


A jubilant Nigel Farage celebrates the victory of Tory defector Mark Reckless who became Ukip's second elected MP in a devastating blow to the Conservatives

Not a bad result from a standing start and in the 271st Ukip-friendly seat, although the Tory vote held up better than the polls stated.

Just remember.. it was all down to Britain First :rolleyes:

[FlyingJesus]

Doesn't this really just prove that people are voting for the person not the party

[dbgtz]

Not a surprising result. It will be more interesting to see the result in the general election.

[Kardan]

I think the real news story (since the UKIP win was expected) is the total Lib Dem collapse. Maybe the UK will still have 3 main parties after the general election next year: Tories, Labour and UKIP.