Shift in mood as UKIP no longer seen as long-term force

[Chippiewill]

In a shift since last year, most voters now doubt that UKIP will remain a force in 10 years’ time

In October last year, fresh after Douglas Carswell's victory in Clacton, YouGov measured the public mood about UKIP’s future as a force in British politics – if it would fade away, or remain an important feature for at least the next ten years. The public fell on the side of longevity, by 49-35%. In the months since, that position has reversed, and by a wider margin: the majority (53%) think the party will fade, and only 30% think it will endure. More than twice as many UKIP voters (12%) express doubts about their party’s future than in October (5%).

One explanation is the relatively low profile the party leader Nigel Farage has kept recently as he focuses on his forthcoming campaign in South Thanet. As the party’s head of campaigns said, “the more media comes [to his target seat of South Thanet], the less people he can talk to. He had a camera turn up a few days ago and it prevented him doing any form of campaigning. It’s important that Nigel wins.”

UKIP has lost ground recently in voting intention, with support in slight decline since October of last year, when UKIP reached an all-time high of 19%. Those weeks of averaging 17% or 18% have given way to leads of 14% or 15%. This is still an improvement on last summer, however.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/23...fading-public/

At this point it's a self fulfilling prophecy, people believe UKIP is over so they don't vote for UKIP so more people think it's over. Ultimately a single-issue party never really had much of a chance.

[GommeInc]

I don't think it helped they agreed with the Conservatives on a few policies within the last few weeks - so people are thinking "well if they agree with them then we may as well vote Conservative as they have greater power and more chance of getting into power." Own fault, really.

[The Don]

I don't think it helped they agreed with the Conservatives on a few policies within the last few weeks - so people are thinking "well if they agree with them then we may as well vote Conservative as they have greater power and more chance of getting into power." Own fault, really.

When multiple conservative MP's defect to UKIP it should become apparent that there is little ideological differences between the two.

UKIP growth was partly due to little vocal opposition by both the media and the other parties, now that they've been under their fair share of scrutiny the public have become wise to what the party really entails.

[-:Undertaker:-]

A small drop has happened in the polls, although it was expected with 'soft' support being squeezed as we approach May.

If you take all the polls into account, hardly a dramatic shift just yet.

As Professor Matthew Goodwin has said though, Ukip support is pretty solid and there's now a growing class of 'left behind' voters who will vote for a alternative like Ukip whether it is Ukip or another similar party. The Conservatives and Labour are still heading towards a historic low combined % this May.

Apparently the Ukip strategy is to secure a few seats in 2015 and hundreds of second place results to challenge Labour: it's called the 2020 strategy.

[FlyingJesus]

The rise in Green support is just Scotland being angry and there aren't actually people who think they'd do a good job with anything right because that would be scary