EU Referendum Megathread (Brexit)

[-:Undertaker:-]

So you mean the GBP isn't at it's worst rate since 2009?

That's incorrect or at least the goalposts being used are incorrect.

Pound higher than it was in February. FTSE 100 is higher than it was last Friday. You may have missed this if you get your news from the TV.

— Gary Conway (@gazcon) June 24, 2016

It's currency markets correcting itself. Speculators in currency and investment markets often speculate on outcomes and they speculated wrongly on this. As the post above said, immediately after the vote when markets opened we saw big movements but by the end of the day markets had rallied back to more or less the same. Everything is absolutely fine now and even those who were predicting doom like the CBI have said actually er it'll be fine.

Also, can't MPs still ignore that and vote against leaving the EU? If majority were for remain at least.

They can if they want to pour fuel on the fire and turn Ukip into the SNP, sure.

[abc]

The only jobs being lost are David Cameron, George Osborne and all the British MEPs.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA Delusional.

Morgan Stanley is moving 1,000 jobs out of UK
JP Morgan is moving minimum 1,000 jobs out of UK
Deutsche Bank is moving several thousand jobs out of UK
HSBC will cut minimum 1,000 jobs in UK due to Brexit

PriceWaterhouseCoopers estimates that Brexit could cost between 70,000-100,000 financial services jobs by 2020.

Bank analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods have estimated that the big U.S. banks allow could move just over 7,200 workers outside of London.

Lloyds of London, the insurance firm, has said that a material number of the 34,000 employees in the insurance industry could be moved out of the U.K.

[FlyingJesus]

Yet the Leave campaign are like "shit, we didn't think we would actually win.

About 4 people that have been cherrypicked for the news are thinking that

[-:Undertaker:-]

Here's a visual of currency markets from 2012 to right now.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Morgan Stanley is moving 1,000 jobs out of UK

Morgan Stanley denies this.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/bu...-a7100911.html

JP Morgan is moving minimum 1,000 jobs out of UK

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-br...-idUSKCN0ZA2YL

Deutsche Bank is moving several thousand jobs out of UK

I can find no evidence or rebuttal of this but the bank is cutting 3,000 jobs from Germany.

http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/06/23/...bs-in-germany/

HSBC will cut minimum 1,000 jobs in UK due to Brexit

Untrue.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36629745

PriceWaterhouseCoopers estimates that Brexit could cost between 70,000-100,000 financial services jobs by 2020.

Ah right another scary estimate.

Bank analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods have estimated that the big U.S. banks allow could move just over 7,200 workers outside of London.

snort.

Lloyds of London, the insurance firm, has said that a material number of the 34,000 employees in the insurance industry could be moved out of the U.K.

Lloyds have done the opposite and assured staff and customers...

http://uk.businessinsider.com/lloyds...nderway-2016-6

[scottish]

That's incorrect or at least the goalposts being used are incorrect.

Pound higher than it was in February. FTSE 100 is higher than it was last Friday. You may have missed this if you get your news from the TV.

— Gary Conway (@gazcon) June 24, 2016

It's currency markets correcting itself. Speculators in currency and investment markets often speculate on outcomes and they speculated wrongly on this. As the post above said, immediately after the vote when markets opened we saw big movements but by the end of the day markets had rallied back to more or less the same. Everything is absolutely fine now and even those who were predicting doom like the CBI have said actually er it'll be fine.



They can if they want to pour fuel on the fire and turn Ukip into the SNP, sure.

27th Feb it dipped to 1.38660 and has been pretty steadily closing at 1.40+ since then (roughly 1.43).

Prior to referendum announcements (e.g. 19th) it was steady at 1.43 then went up a bit in anticipation of Remain win, after this it sunk to 1.34 (lowest it's been in god knows how long) then settled around 1.36753.

In the last 10 years the only time it's been below 1.36753 was 25th Jan 2009 at which point it hit 1.36450 (ignoring the 1.34101 it hit during Referendum).

So no, it's not incorrect.

I wonder if Leave would win if there was a second referendum, I wonder how many people based a large portion of their thought with Leave on the 350m to the NHS claim that was quickly retracted following a win? Would also convince the what 28% who didn't show up to stick their vote in.

[-:Undertaker:-]

27th Feb it dipped to 1.38660 and has been pretty steadily closing at 1.40+ since then (roughly 1.43).

Prior to referendum announcements (e.g. 19th) it was steady at 1.43 then went up a bit in anticipation of Remain win, after this it sunk to 1.34 (lowest it's been in god knows how long) then settled around 1.36753.

In the last 10 years the only time it's been below 1.36753 was 25th Jan 2009 at which point it hit 1.36450 (ignoring the 1.34101 it hit during Referendum).

So no, it's not incorrect.

The graph says it all with various currencies. A non-event.

UK government can now borrow at just 1.08% for 10 years and at under 2% for 30 years, historic low borrowing rates.

— Andrew Neil (@afneil) June 25, 2016

Strong confidence in the British economy.

I wonder if Leave would win if there was a second referendum, I wonder how many people based a large portion of their thought with Leave on the 350m to the NHS claim that was quickly retracted following a win? Would also convince the what 28% who didn't show up to stick their vote in.

The answer to both your questions can be found in today's polling.

On the EU referendum result:
Happy: 48%
Unhappy: 43%
Indifferent: 7%
(via ComRes)

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 25, 2016

[scottish]

The graph says it all with various currencies. A non-event.



The answer to both your questions can be found in today's polling.

On the EU referendum result:
Happy: 48%
Unhappy: 43%
Indifferent: 7%
(via ComRes)

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 25, 2016

Various currencies such as which?

I'd expect these will be the Euro and the GBP?

Well no, those polls are useless.

Firstly, 80% of the people polled could be 'Leave' voters resulting in a heavy amount of 'Leave' voters being unhappy after the result due to the retracted statements such as the 350M to spend on NHS/Education/etc.

If you ask 50% Leave voters and 50% Remain voters and the result is 50% are happy and 50% are unhappy that's not really surprising is it? However if the pollsters weigh more on the Leave side and are unhappy then that's a completely different story.

Secondly, we have proven time and time again polls are hugely inaccurate, for example your favourite Twitter Britain Elects published results of the 'on the day' poll which had 52% Remain, 48% Leave then 54% Remain and 46% Leave later on the same day. On the days leading up there was polls saying 55% Remain/45% Leave. Didn't the polls also show hugely different results for our Indyref?

How did that turn out for us?

[-:Undertaker:-]

@scottish;

The currency comparisons I posted earlier are with the GBP to Krona, Euro, Dollar and Swiss Franc from 2012 to present.

I am having great fun watching mainly students insult older people and claim that somehow their vote is worth more, claiming that 52% of the population are nasty uneducated racists fooled by Rupert Murdoch, watching them throwing abuse at Boris Johnson and blocking his car in the road like spoilt brats, having them sign a petition demanding another vote and politicians telling us we didn't quite "get the message" but we did and we thought the message was shit.

Sally, aged 21 and studying film at "unay" believes her vote is worth more than Doris, aged 87 who lived through WWII and worked for 50 years.

It's quite possibly the biggest tantrum ever thrown in history.





lmao.

[scottish]

@scottish;

The currency comparisons I posted earlier are with the GBP to Krona, Euro, Dollar and Swiss Franc from 2012 to present.

I am having great fun watching mainly students insult older people and claim that somehow their vote is worth more, claiming that 52% of the population are nasty uneducated racists fooled by Rupert Murdoch, watching them throwing abuse at Boris Johnson and blocking his car in the road like spoilt brats, having them sign a petition demanding another vote and politicians telling us we didn't quite "get the message" but we did and we thought the message was shit.

Sally, aged 21 and studying film at "unay" believes her vote is worth more than Doris, aged 87 who lived through WWII and worked for 50 years.

It's quite possibly the biggest tantrum ever thrown in history.





lmao.

That's life at the end of the day, people will complain about something if it doesn't go the way they want especially if they feel strongly about it. If it was a remain vote I'm sure you wouldn't shut up and just stop caring about the UK leaving the EU and be just sit happily with this.

I personally don't care what people voted for at the end of the day and couldn't care what their age is.

I do however agree with the petition due to the fact their most important propaganda piece was pulled hours following the result. I'm not saying that due to the fact that Leave won, similarly if we had a Remain vote and our poster and main propaganda piece said we'll gain 350M a year from the EU for remaining in the EU then on the day of the result we retract that statement and said yeah that's completely wrong I'd agree with a petition at that point as in either case that's going to have a huge impact on the voters and could be a main item to swing voters either way. The fact it was an outright lie in my mind warrants justification for the petition and a second referendum.

If I voted Leave due to that I'd be pretty pissed off.

Regarding currencies, we'll see if it continues to be a problem. Obviously our GBP > USD conversion is probably the most important (or at least from my view I'd consider it the most important) so any changes in this is visible to me. Obviously other currencies such as the Krona has been horrendously bad in the past and our value vs it has increased over the past few years (i.e. with your SEK we went to 13.26211 last year from about 10.5 in the years prior and we're down to 11.57419 now, so obviously not as bad as it's been in the past but if it continues to dip in the next few weeks then it very well could be).

Just seen an interesting comment by Teebs; http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...mment-77205935

[-:Undertaker:-]

Vote split // On the #EUref result (Remain / Leave):
Happy: 4% / 92%
Unhappy: 88% / 1%
Indifferent: 7% / 5%
(via ComRes)

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 25, 2016

Interesting that more Remain voters are happy with the result than Leavers unhappy.

In time that figure will be sure to grow. A lot of people never liked the EU but fell for the scaremongering, I know them personally.

That's life at the end of the day, people will complain about something if it doesn't go the way they want especially if they feel strongly about it. If it was a remain vote I'm sure you wouldn't shut up and just stop caring about the UK leaving the EU and be just sit happily with this.

I wouldn't be pleased with it but I would accept it. At the last General Election the party I did not want into government won a thumping majority and the party I supported only got 1 MP despite coming third nationally. Did I demand another election or whinge? No I did not.

I do however agree with the petition due to the fact their most important propaganda piece was pulled hours following the result. I'm not saying that due to the fact that Leave won, similarly if we had a Remain vote and our poster and main propaganda piece said we'll gain 350M a year from the EU for remaining in the EU then on the day of the result we retract that statement and said yeah that's completely wrong I'd agree with a petition at that point as in either case that's going to have a huge impact on the voters and could be a main item to swing voters either way. The fact it was an outright lie in my mind warrants justification for the petition and a second referendum.

I do not think you've understood the point about the 350 million. Firstly, you're not voting on a government or manifesto you're voting on the issue. Secondly, Farage who distanced himself from the claim had nothing to do with Vote Leave. Thirdly, the claim is still valid as when we do withdraw from the European Union the government will be fit to spend that 350 million on whichever it sees fit or has a mandate to do. The NHS claim was simply saying that we would have 350 million to spend on the NHS, not that the government (whoever it is) would enact. It could be split between the NHS, defence, care of the elderly, foreign aid - whatever the elected government upon withdrawal from the EU has a mandate to spend it in.

I personally would like to see it used on defence and/or launching our own (serious) space agency as we should be a player in that but we're not.

If I voted Leave due to that I'd be pretty pissed off.

People voted Leave because of sovereignty and immigration, not soley the (true) fact we could spend EU membership contributions elsewhere.

Regarding currencies, we'll see if it continues to be a problem. Obviously our GBP > USD conversion is probably the most important (or at least from my view I'd consider it the most important) so any changes in this is visible to me. Obviously other currencies such as the Krona has been horrendously bad in the past and our value vs it has increased over the past few years (i.e. with your SEK we went to 13.26211 last year from about 10.5 in the years prior and we're down to 11.57419 now, so obviously not as bad as it's been in the past but if it continues to dip in the next few weeks then it very well could be).

Just seen an interesting comment by Teebs; http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...mment-77205935

I wouldn't mind if the GBP dropped further as it'd help boost our exports and encourage more people to visit and invest here tbh.

Infact, there's a possibility in future years that as the Eurozone and EU continue to decay and potentially collapse, that we and Switzerland will benefit from capital flight (a good thing) from the collapsing Eurozone but which will push our currency up in a short space of time (instability).