UK General Election 2017 Megathread

[-:Undertaker:-]

Absolutely right.

The right of the party should continue to support May in place whilst she delivers Brexit. The Cameroons must be kept well away, if not then they risk plunging the party into civil war and reviving Ukip over night. People like me are supporting the Tory Party at the moment rather like the noose supports the hanged man - at any moment we can pull the lever for the trap door and walk away.

I'm perfectly willing to let them fall to Corbyn's Labour if there's any backtracking. My vote is conditional, not unconditional.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Apparently David Davis had to go to Number 10 after the election to prevent her resigning on the spot.

Developments happening right now show the next 24 hours are critical, if not then new PM.

Am told Theresa May will face leadership challenge unless she sacks her two chief aides Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill

— norman smith (@Thehackandhound) June 10, 2017

Senior Tories say Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill must be sacked this weekend or leadership challenge on Monday

— norman smith (@Thehackandhound) June 10, 2017

Much top Tory talk this morning that Mrs May needs to appoint a Deputy Prime Minister to counter power of her Downing Street advisers. Who?

— Andrew Neil (@afneil) June 10, 2017

I support May - first PM in my lifetime I actually approve of - so hope she can survive. She's fatally weakened though.

[-:Undertaker:-]

ITV's Robert Peston just reporting that the Govt Chief Whip has been sent to Belfast to negotiate a *formal* coalition with the DUP. That would mean a similar set up to the 2010 coalition, meaning DUP MPs hold ministerial office.

Theresa May is trying to persuade the ten DUP MPs to enter into a formal coalition agreement with the Tories, as opposed to a less formal "confidence and supply" arrangement, ministers tell me.

The prime minister has sent a team of officials, led by her chief whip, Gavin Williamson, to Belfast to negotiate the details of an alliance with the DUP.

"A coalition would be much better than a looser alliance", one senior minister said. "We don't want the DUP demanding money for this or that project they fancy every time we need them to support us in a vote. That would be deeply unstable".

"Don't under-estimate the importance of doing the DUP deal" another of Mrs May's colleagues told me. "Without it, I don't see how we govern with any confidence".

Or to put it another way, the deal with the DUP represents life or death both for the new government and for Mrs May as PM.

Mrs May's hope is that in any coalition, the DUP would be satisfied with ministerial jobs at just below cabinet rank. It is not clear whether the DUP would insist on being represented in the cabinet.

@lemons;

Most Leavers voted Tory. Believe me, we're not handing Brexit over to Corbyn's circus.

Theresa May got the second most votes *ever* by a political party. It was increased Labour turnout that prevented a landslide.

The Conservatives were the main beneficiary of Ukip's collapse #GE2017 pic.twitter.com/04Eb9UYYmq

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 10, 2017

If the government falls, a Lab-SNP-Green-Plaid-LD mess could well swing throw the Tories back over Maj territory within months.

[lemons]

I have no doubt that most leavers and 2015 UKIP voters voted Tory but what this election showed is that people care about other issues rather than just Brexit - and now Theresa May has thrown it into jeopardy!

People who voted Labour in this election are not going to change their mind next time round if JC is still running, the Conservative vote will be at risk

[-:Undertaker:-]

PMs closest advisors Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill have just resigned.

No prime minister has ever been so dependent on two people. Now she is alone. Ministers want to prop her up. MPs may tear her down

— Tim Shipman (@ShippersUnbound) June 10, 2017

Tory MPs are currently in their constituencies, having discussions with association chairs, key supporters. Feedback on May very, very bad.

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) June 10, 2017

I would be amazed if May hasn't pre-announced her resignation by the time she meets the 1922 committee.

— (((Dan Hodges))) (@DPJHodges) June 10, 2017

I cannot see her *wanting* to stay on with her staff gone. She's now a zombie PM. I feel bad for her.

I have no doubt that most leavers and 2015 UKIP voters voted Tory but what this election showed is that people care about other issues rather than just Brexit - and now Theresa May has thrown it into jeopardy!

People who voted Labour in this election are not going to change their mind next time round if JC is still running, the Conservative vote will be at risk

I think you're blinded as to how popular Corbyn actually is. Most of the public aren't followers of his cult like the student demographic is, and many will vote Tory simply to keep him away from Number 10. Many of us regard him as off the charts mad.

A retired British man/woman who votes Tory, has flirted with Ukip... is suddenly going to vote for a Marxist to be PM with SNP backing? The fact is that the electorate now is highly polarised and as the election campaign had shown, even though it went really badly for the Conservatives their lead still held up very well. The Conservative voting bloc is currently at a near all-time high.

Conservative vote increased by 9-points in more working-class seats but only by 2 points in more middle-class seats https://t.co/UN0cDQkfI4

— Matt Goodwin (@GoodwinMJ) June 10, 2017

Important stat.

[MKR&*42]

Formal coalition with the DUP, lmao.

This will not last.

Can we have a prediction competition on when the next election will be? pls

[-:Undertaker:-]

Formal coalition with the DUP, lmao.

This will not last.

Can we have a prediction competition on when the next election will be? pls

The threat to the government - if formed with DUP support/coalition - is not the DUP itself, it is the divisions in the Conservative Party. If the Cameroons in the party begin to demand a watered down Brexit aka Not a Brexit then the party will go into civil war and Govt will fall. This [Brexit] is the Holy Grail to the right of the party, and after decades of fighting for it we're not letting go.

Thankfully my faction has the upper hand in that even if this chaos all continues, the countdown on leaving the EU treaties has already begun so we'll 'crash out' anyway on terms more favoured by my side if government can't negotiate a deal.

Remain Tory MPs starting to make this case and mobilise. Demanding greater role in government. Leave MPs very concerned... https://t.co/0GzhhkX8SR

— Alex Wickham (@alexwickham) June 10, 2017

Not to mention the fact that if the Cameroon faction did somehow take control of the policy and the party again, this would mean Farage returning thus reviving Ukip and depriving the Tories of having enough votes to form a government again. Catch 22.

[MKR&*42]

I agree^ but I do feel that the DUP will not want a hard Brexit, and once you add in the complications of the Scottish Tories who probably won't want a hard Brexit either, then chaos is already looking likely.

In other interesting news, Lib Dems are seeking legal advice over the result in North East Fife (where they lost by only 2 votes): https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news...ection-result/

In 1997 the conservatives lost by 2 votes in Winchester and they challenged the result at the High Court, on the grounds that there were 54 Ballot papers without an official mark due to the production company - and had those votes been counted then the conservatives would had been won. The High Court accepted the challenge, annulled the result and there was a by-election (of which the conservatives then lost by over 22,000 lol...) - so there is a precedent which might allow them to annul this result as well.

[lemons]

Democratic Unionist Party agrees principles of "confidence and supply" deal to support Conservatives in government https://t.co/QoIhvJ5bDA

— BBC Breaking News (@BBCBreaking) June 10, 2017

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politic...eresa-10601306

Jeremy Corbyn vows to oust Theresa May 'within a matter of days' after spectacular election result
The Labour leader has revealed exclusively to the Sunday Mirror that he plans to use the Queen’s Speech as his first opportunity to topple the floundering PM

I don't get how he can do it but who knows!

[lemons]

wooweeee

Westminster voting intention:

LAB: 45% (+5)
CON: 39% (-3)
LDEM: 7% (-)
UKIP: 3% (+1)

(via @Survation / 10 Jun)
Chgs. w/ GE2017

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 10, 2017