US election 2012: Ron Paul gaining support of Iowan Democrats and independents

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...#disqus_thread

US elections 2012: Ron Paul gaining support of Iowan Democrats and independents and gains a major score as Bachmann's Iowa Campaign Chief defects

Ron Paul, the eccentric 76-year-old Texas congressman, is threatening to cause an upset in Iowa by winning the Republican caucus thanks to the support of independent and even Democratic voters.

Dr Paul is backed by 39 per cent of non-Republican caucus-goers

Dr Paul, a three-time presidential hopeful credited as being the Father of the Tea Party, is gathering late momentum among Iowan conservatives after persuading Michele Bachmann's state chairman to defect. But he also stands to benefit from state rules dictating that everyone may vote in the party contest. "If you are not a Republican, you can register at the door," said David Fischer, Dr Paul's Iowa co-chairman, at a rally at a speedway stadium in Newton. Thousands of members of Barack Obama's Democrats, disenchanted but with no contest of their own, are set to turn out at caucus sites on Tuesday to do just that.

Almost one in four caucus-goers is expected to be an independent or Democrat, according to a Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey. Polls here indicate that while Mitt Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, leads the field among registered Republicans, he is overtaken by Dr Paul when everyone who intends to caucus is taken into account. Dr Paul is backed by 39 per cent of non-Republican caucus-goers while just 12 per cent support Mr Romney, PPP found. Samantha Dunn, a 28-year-old teacher watching Dr Paul speak at the Iowa state fair grounds in Des Moines on Wednesday night, said she would switch from the Democrats to the Republicans at her local site in order to support him. "I voted for Obama in 2008 but we need a change," she told The Daily Telegraph. "Dr Paul is consistent and honest, which is very hard to find. He is not just telling us what we have heard before."

Onstage soon after, state senator Kent Sorenson, Mrs Bachmann's Iowa chairman, caused shock by announcing that he was switching to Dr Paul just six days before the vote. "If you are as frustrated as I am with what's been done by the ruling class, I urge you to join me," he said. Millions of young voters with similarly anti-establishment views discovered Dr Paul via internet forums, where a cult-like following extols his anti-war stance and revolutionary plans for Washington."It spreads like wildfire," said one, Quaitames Williams, a 26-year-old nursing student. Amid the bitterest political environment in a generation, many are captivated by Dr Paul's ideological purity.

He wants to bring home all US troops, slash $1 trillion (£649 billion) in public spending immediately, abolish five government departments, scrap all foreign aid and return the dollar to the gold standard. "He's idealistic, and young people tend to be idealistic," said William Tretton, a 19-year-old Naval cadet from Newton. His 20-year-old brother Tom, who like William is registered independent but will caucus for Dr Paul, said: "Obama did that in '08. But now he's mud-slinging like the rest of them."

Polls suggest that even the unearthing of newsletters published under Dr. Pauls publishing newsletter group by another writer in the 1990s containing homophobic and anti-semitic material have not hurt him. "People just don't believe he is racist," said Tom. Dr Paul has even attracted members of the Occupy protest movement, which is generally assumed to be Left-wing. "Like us, he wants to end the military-industrial complex," said Clarke Davidson, a 28-year-old unemployed television producer, who registered as a Republican last week to caucus for Dr Paul.

His potential success has caused concerns among the Republican establishment. Party grandees dismiss him as an unelectable crank while Newt Gingrich, the former House Speaker, said he was "totally outside the mainstream of virtually every decent American". But so committed are his young fans that a secretive army of volunteers, who paid for their own flights, have arrived from outside the state to tread pavements for their hero, and are staying together in a YMCA. Banned from speaking to the media, they have been instructed to remain sober and clean-shaven and cover up any tattoos that might offend the state's socially conservative voters.

PPPPolling Iowa, 27/12:

Ron Paul 24%
Mitt Romney 20%
Gingrich 13%
Bachmann 11%
Santorum 10%
Perry 10%
Huntsman 4%

PPPPolling New Hampshire, 28/12:

Mitt Romney 36%
Ron Paul 21%
Gingrich 13%
Huntsman 12%
Bachmann 7%
Santorum 3%
Perry 3%

..and yesterday both Kelly Clarkson, Michelle Branch and Jesse Ventura endorsed Ron Paul for Republican nominee. The Iowa election is on the 3rd January and the New Hampshire on the 10th from what I recall. He's been dismissed and laughed at all these years and he turned out to be right on the wars, right on the economy (predicted the 2008 credit crash) and just about right on everything.

With anyluck a win in Iowa will propel him upwards in New Hampshire to a close second/first place.

Thoughts on the US Presidential Race 2012?

[FiftyCal]

He's got this, he will be the man in the white house for sure in 2012. I know people that wished they lived in the United States so they can support him in the elections. He has so much military veteran support because they are tired of being in places they don't want to be.

[-:Undertaker:-]

He's got this, he will be the man in the white house for sure in 2012. I know people that wished they lived in the United States so they can support him in the elections. He has so much military veteran support because they are tired of being in places they don't want to be.

Have to be careful though, non-GOP voters will need to turn out in Iowa in order to beat Romney and there's *reports* of a Rick Santorum surge so we'll have to see if/how its effecting his polling numbers. I'll post if this poll is released, but it doesn't seem to hold much water from what i've heard. The poll to look out for is the PPPPolling one which is taking place on Saturday from what i've read.

[Grig]

Those who support Paul are much more likely to actually show up and vote. If he gets this leverage by winning Iowa, then he can very well shoot further to prominence through more media recognition where he'd be able to spread his message to gain more supporters. He is also closing the gap in New Hampshire, which is all great news. As for Santorum, it will have more or less an obsolete effect on the numbers anyway.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Oh thank heavens, last PPP Poll is out now;

Ron Paul 20%
Mitt Romney 19%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 14%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 9%
Huntsman 4%
Roemer 2%

With the margin or error, its a statistical dead heat. Ron is depending on a big Democrat and independent turnout in order to beat Romney who is supported mainly by older voters. I think they can pull it off because he has by far the most passionate movement on the ground and the most active, so when it comes to the speeches before the vote it might push him over the edge with some of the undecided voters. I know I should just be hoping for the best, but if Santorum comes second and beats Romney that would be a gods gift, it really would.

http://www.dailypaul.com/198550/new-...santorum-at-18

62% of people polled were over 46 years old.

So the poll was mostly older Republicans, but then they are the party faithful who will usually always turn out.

[FiftyCal]

Well i guess this is good news for ron

[Grig]

Oh thank heavens, last PPP Poll is out now;

Ron Paul 20%
Mitt Romney 19%
Santorum 18%
Gingrich 14%
Perry 10%
Bachmann 9%
Huntsman 4%
Roemer 2%

With the margin or error, its a statistical dead heat. Ron is depending on a big Democrat and independent turnout in order to beat Romney who is supported mainly by older voters. I think they can pull it off because he has by far the most passionate movement on the ground and the most active, so when it comes to the speeches before the vote it might push him over the edge with some of the undecided voters. I know I should just be hoping for the best, but if Santorum comes second and beats Romney that would be a gods gift, it really would.

http://www.dailypaul.com/198550/new-...santorum-at-18



So the poll was mostly older Republicans, but then they are the party faithful who will usually always turn out.

Younger voters for the first time in a while are actually determined to go out and vote, Paul's message appeals to them most- seeing as Ron has the most loyal base of supporters. This means that the stats by the PPP for Paul should be quite a bit lower than what the actual result may be, which is good news for Paul all round.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Younger voters for the first time in a while are actually determined to go out and vote, Paul's message appeals to them most- seeing as Ron has the most loyal base of supporters. This means that the stats by the PPP for Paul should be quite a bit lower than what the actual result may be, which is good news for Paul all round.

I suppose and hope so yeah, apparently he's been pulling in numbers similar to Obama in 2007/8 in Iowa.

Not long anywho! Rand and Carol Paul are on the campaign trial right now.

[Technologic]

He won't win, people will get stuck in their psyche of left vs right.

[FiftyCal]

I'm hoping he will win primary, if he does i'm pretty sure it's going to be between obama vs paul and if that happens i'm pretty sure he has a good chance of winning.