Boris Johnson signs the People's Pledge

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/da...utcome-is-not/

Daniel Hannan - An EU referendum is inevitable; its outcome is not

Daniel Hannan is a writer and journalist, and has been Conservative MEP for South East England since 1999. He speaks French and Spanish and loves Europe, but believes that the European Union is making its constituent nations poorer, less democratic and less free.

Boris hereby secures his re-election

A referendum on EU membership is starting to feel unavoidable. Boris Johnson's support for the People's Pledge is just the latest token of a changed atmosphere. When the question was last put before the House of Commons, none of the main parties argued that consulting the people was wrong in principle. It was hardly a position they could take, given that all three had promised a vote of one kind or another during the previous session. The argument, rather, was over the timing and the wording – a sure sign that the battle has turned.

We still have some way to go, of course. When the Commons divided last year, only 111 MPs were brave enough to vote for a referendum. Next time, the number will be higher. Some MPs will have seen the light; others will have felt the heat. The People's Pledge is organising constituency-wide referendums, one seat at a time. The first, in Thurrock, will be held a week on Thursday. While we won't know the turnout until then, nearly 6000 residents have so far signed the Pledge. In other words, they have made a written commitment that, at the next election, they will vote only for a candidate who offers an In/Out referendum. The parliamentary majority in Thurrock is 92.

Ten more constituency-wide referendums will be held around Britain later this year, and 100 more next year. If that doesn't work, the whole country will be balloted. Not that we'll get to that stage because, in reality, one or another of the main parties will have embraced the referendum by then (possibly, as Tim Montgomerie suggests, to be held on the same day as the general election).

Which way will such a referendum go? It's impossible to say. If a snap vote were held tomorrow, people would unquestionably opt for withdrawal. The polls have been consistent for the past five years: when you exclude the don't knows, there is a solid 60:40 souverainiste majority. Whether that figure would hold throughout a lengthy campaign, in which the 'Yes' side would enjoy a colossal financial advantage and the support of all the party leaderships, is a very different question. Almost all referendums see a swing toward the status quo during the final weeks. During the 1975 vote, a two-to-one anti-EEC majority was reversed on polling day.

A parallel can be drawn with the other separatist referendum we face: that on Scottish independence. According to every test of opinion, most Scots favour neither the status quo nor outright secession, but something in between – an increase in autonomy known as 'devo max'. Something similar can be said of attitudes to the EU. When faced with a three-option question, most voters opt for the middle way: a looser relationship with the EU that stops short of withdrawal. My guess is that, in a binary referendum, victory will go to whichever side colonises that middle way.

People's Pledge canvassers in Thurrock

In Scotland, David Cameron has adroitly captured the middle option for the 'No' campaign. Vote against separation, he says, and I'll come forward with a new package of devolution within the UK. Supporters of the EU will doubtless try the same thing, mutatis mutandis.

There is, though, one critical difference. David Cameron is perfectly within his rights to promise further devolution to Scotland within the United Kingdom because he, you know, runs the UK. He is in no position to make an equivalent promise on behalf of the European Union, because he doesn't run the EU. Indeed, he has already tried, albeit modestly, to improve our membership terms, and been comprehensively rebuffed. We know, from hard experience, that a meaningful repatriation of powers within the EU is impossible.

The middle way – whether we call it associate membership or free-trade-plus or EFTA – is, in reality, possible only following a 'No' vote. An independent Britain could negotiate a new relationship with the EU along the lines of that enjoyed by Norway or Switzerland, but on rather better terms. Opponents of EU membership are arguing, not for isolation, but for close intergovernmental co-operation, a common market and a continuing military alliance. If Switzerland seems too exotic an example, consider the Channel Islands. They, too, prosper as members of a free trade area rather than of the EU.

Will voters see it this way, or will they be swayed by the scare stories with which the 'Yes' campaign will inundate them? I don't know. And, in truth, that shouldn't be the determining consideration. Instead of guessing at the outcome and working backwards, we should ask the only question that really matters. Is a referendum right in principle?

The momentum is growing, as shown by the latest Survation poll..



We deserve our chance to have a say at the very least, well done to Boris for backing the (very well organised) campaign.

Thoughts?

[GommeInc]

The poll is a bit difficult to answer. Personally, I would like the keep a form of the EU where EU nations can converse by sharing ideas and concerns, but not dictate change like the current EU system which is more damaging than beneficial for all countries, even those that have managed to con countries into signing their powers away to them.

[Oleh]

I hope something drastic happens, I don't follow politics but I've heard many bad things about what's happening. I just wish the majority of the population would wise up and realise all this maliciousness is going on.

[Kieran]

I'd like to stay in the EU as a whole but I don't think its correct that they effectively create our laws and policies.... for example the kicking out of that cleric.... absolutely ridiculous that we can't kick him out!

[The Don]

Whilst i am happy that I have the opportunity to move to any country in the EU, I'd much rather leave it and hopefully reduce immigration, this would then increase the job availability here and would also hopefully reduce tax through the abolishment of VAT Tax ( I doubt this would happen) and also through other expenses paid to the European Union.