Labour insiders urge Miliband to throw the cat among the pigeons

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/gre...ters-turn-ukip

Miliband ponders EU poll as voters turn to UKIP

Labour leader urged to offer referendum as poll shows alarm in Tory ranks over euro turmoil

LABOUR LEADER Ed Miliband is considering offering voters an in-or-out referendum on Britain's membership of the EU if he wins the next election - while a new poll suggests that almost a third of people who voted Tory in 2010 have already, or may soon, switch their allegiance to UKIP as turmoil in the Eurozone impacts on UK politics.

The poll is bad news for David Cameron as he leaves Camp David, the US president's rural retreat, after a weekend meeting of the G8 at which world leaders issued a pledge to keep Greece in the Eurozone. Chancellor George Osborne meanwhile warned that a Greek exit from the euro would be disastrous for the UK economy.

Conducted for The Independent on Sunday by ComRes, the poll suggests that almost one in three people who voted Tory in 2010 are ready to back UKIP. Ten per cent said they had already switched, while 26 per cent of those who still back the Tories said they were "seriously considering" UKIP. UKIP, once dismissed as a lunatic fringe by the political class, advocates withdrawal from the EU – and it is a referendum on exactly that which senior figures in the Labour party are urging Ed Miliband to consider, reports The Observer.

The paper claims that shadow cabinet members and others want Miliband to pledge that he would hold such a ballot if elected well before the 2014 European elections, and well before David Cameron has the chance to make the same promise. It is thought that party strategists see this as a chance for Miliband to seize the initiative and appear decisive, in a break from the perceived vacillation of Gordon Brown's leadership of the Labour party.

Writing in The Sunday Times today, George Osborne – who was last night spotted at the Allianz Arena in Munich watching his football team, Chelsea, win the Champions League trophy – offers a bleak assessment of the impact on the UK of Greek exit. Fearing that turmoil in the Eurozone will hamper the UK's recovery from its double-dip recession, he writes: "We need the eurozone to solve its problems ...The alternative scenario carries enormous risks for everybody.".

A recent YouGov poll..

LAB 44%, CON 31%, UKIP 9% LDEM 7%

I have to say, although i'm weary of a referendum (the BBC and other broadcasters will be on the yes side as they always have been as well as the main parties) it shows the issue is rapidly gaining momentum as 'the project' falls flat on its face as the Euro collapses. If Miliband, despite being avidly pro-EU, offered a referendum it would throw the cat among the pigeons and cause havok in the Conservative Party which is deeply divided on the issue (as shown by a third 'seriously considering' defecting to UKIP).

Although if he or even Cameron wanted my vote based on a referendum, i'd want some assurances. Firstly i'd like to know how the question would be worded as to avoid a weighted question. Secondly, i'd like some 'pact' with UKIP and other groups which would show a serious commitment to holding a referendum and not just a 'cast iron' one like Cameron offered. I very much doubt these will happen, let alone Miliband going ahead with it or even Cameron - they've spent years working together to keep us in the dark over the European Union and I seriously doubt they are going to risk it all incase the referendum goes 'the wrong way' as it so often does in relation to the EU across Europe.

Interesting anyway even if possible shallow opportunism, especially the poll.

Thoughts? would you believe any of the main parties or do they simply need replacing altogether?

[Mathew]

Miliband doesn't have the guts to do it, although those UKIP ratings are becoming increasingly promising!

[dbgtz]

Why is everyones face in that picture so badly posed in some shape or form? :L

Anyway even if he were to "promise" it, I wouldn't really believe it would ever happen or, if he were elected, he would probably put it about a year before the next elections just for PR.

[GommeInc]

If he did it would only act as an official opinion poll. If the majority said yes he would still keep the UK in the EU, his party is pro-European Union, he would sooner quit his post as imaginary PM than act for democracy and do what the majority say.

[Inseriousity.]

Oh you mean those general election manifestos where they promise one thing and do the complete opposite?

[dbgtz]

Oh you mean those general election manifestos where they promise one thing and do the complete opposite?

Yes. I think the most notable lie of the last general election was this:

[Mathew]

I bet he wishes he never got out of bed on the day of that photo shoot.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Two new polls out tonight, both with UKIP ahead of Liberal Democrats again.

http://survation.com/wp-content/uplo...sis-Tables.pdf - Survation/Mail
LAB 37%, CON 26%, UKIP 12%, LDEM 7% (rounded to nearest whole number with undecideds' included in final tally)

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net...-18-200512.pdf - YouGov/Times
LAB 43%, CON 32%, UKIP 9%, LDEM 8%

If he did it would only act as an official opinion poll. If the majority said yes he would still keep the UK in the EU, his party is pro-European Union, he would sooner quit his post as imaginary PM than act for democracy and do what the majority say.

Indeed, they'll make it an 'advisory' referendum like you say or they'll add the third option of 'remain in EU but with more powers back' - which of course is a false argument because no such thing exists, there is no reverse gear on 'the project'. I think it was Peter Hitchens who came up with the fantastic comparison to being in the EU which went something like.. you're either in it or you're out, just as you're either pregnant or not pregnant.