First of the Ukip target seat polls is released (South Thanet)

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...l-boost-thanet

Ukip threat to Tories revealed by poll of voters in key marginal seat

Farage's party beats Conservatives into third place in survey of constituency where Tory MP is quitting

Nigel Farage may decide Thanet South is where he could become Ukip's first MP. Photograph: Rex

The potential for Ukip to reshape British politics is revealed in a rare constituency poll showing the Conservatives are in third place behind the party in Thanet South, where Tory MP Laura Sandys this week announced her decision to stand down at the next election.

The poll commissioned by a Ukip donor and conducted by the polling company Survation, shows Labour in first place with 35% (up nearly five percentage points on the general election), Ukip second on 30% (up 24 points), the Tories third on 28% (down 20 points) and the Liberal Democrats fourth on 5% (down 10 points).

The poll in a key Labour-Tory marginal is one of eight constituency surveys being conducted by Survation for Ukip donors. It is likely to be used by the party to help decide where its leader, Nigel Farage, has the best chance of winning an historic first parliamentary seat for Ukip. In total more than 5,000 people will have been polled in the exercise. In Thanet, 515 people were questioned between 19 and 25 November.

There has been much speculation that Farage will stand in Thanet, and this one of the reasons for Sandys' decision to stand down.

The polling is also exploring the validity of the Conservative party claim that a vote for Ukip is likely only to benefit Ed Miliband's chances of becoming prime minister.

Another aim in commissioning the surveys is to seek evidence to counter the claims sometimes drawn from polling conducted by Lord Ashcroft, the former Conservative deputy chairman, that a Ukip vote is a wasted vote.

Almost of 78% of Ukip voters in Thanet South said they would not vote Conservative even if their preferred party did not field a candidate. That will reinforce theories that voters cannot easily be won over from Ukip by any amount of Conservative messaging. If Ukip did not stand in the constituency, 41% said they would not vote, 22% said they would vote Conservative, 19% Labour, 4% for other parties and 13% did not know. On those figures, Labour would still win the seat.

The polling also shows a substantial disagreement with the Tory claim that a vote for Ukip will allow Ed Miliband into Downing Street. Evidencing that, 52% of Ukip voters said they would stick with their preferred party rather than the Conservatives even if that meant Miliband became prime minister, while 27% said they "would rather stop Ed Miliband from becoming prime minister, even if that means I had to vote Conservative rather than Ukip". Just over a fifth were don't-knows.

As yet unpublished polls cover five seats including coastal towns, the north, West Midlands and southern England.

Alan Brown, a Ukip donor who commissioned the poll, said: "Lord Ashcroft's interesting polls have been interpreted by many as showing that a vote for Ukip was not only a wasted vote but also a counterproductive one as it could put Miliband into No 10, supposedly against the wishes of most Ukip voters. This has since become the standard media narrative where Ukip is discussed, and a regular Conservative party attack line.

"I did not share this view and was sure that Ukip's increasing popularity and support meant that the picture was much more complicated. I believed that we were taking significant numbers of votes from Labour and the Liberal Democrats as well as the Tories. I also believed that Ukip's popularity and recent phenomenal growth meant that in our strongest areas our support was likely to be significantly higher than Ashcroft's figure of 10-14% nationally would suggest.

"In addition I felt that the fact that Ukip has generally in the past not been [mentioned] in these opinion poll questions may have further underestimated our support."

Brown said he has commissioned the polls partly to explore "the relationship between Ukip and Labour and whether in some northern areas, where the Conservative brand is badly damaged, Ukip might have actually established itself as the official opposition to Labour".

He had brought forward publication of the Thanet South polling in the light of Sandys' surprise decision to stand down.

Some of the polling suggests almost as many Ukip voters would vote Labour as Tory if party was removed from the equation. He said polling will show that Ukip's impact and appeal is "far more complex and interesting than the simplistic narrative of Ukip 'splitting the Tory vote' would suggest."

I think out of all the target seats they're looking at, South Thanet will be where he [Farage] is likely to stand. He lives just down the road, the current MP is stepping down (removing that incumbancy factor that benefits all incumbant MPs) and the seat is a swing seat meaning it's easier to win the seat with a lower percentage than you would need in say a rock solid Labour or Tory seat. The very fact this poll result has been released suggests to me they're sending a message to Thanet voters that the party actually has a chance.

The most interesting thing from the poll though is the number of Ukip voters who are saying they will refuse to vote Conservative at all - there's always been the danger and suggestion that Tories who have gone to Ukip will return to the Tory Party as 2015 approaches. It's not true it seems. Also what will be interesting is the extent of how Ukip is eating into the Labour core vote the north - it is happening in local elections in the north.

Thoughts? Do you think Ukip are now reaching that tipping point under FPTP?

[AgnesIO]

Nigel Farage may decide Thanet South is where he could become Ukip's first MP

Are UKIP only aiming to get one MP in the next election?

[-:Undertaker:-]

Are UKIP only aiming to get one MP in the next election?

Nope, there are other target seats aswell - Eastleigh, Boston & Skegness + others. Obviously Farage is going to stand in one of the top seats, but it's not being said which one yet as there may well be more target seats that emerge after this May's Local Elections which are on the same day as the European Elections. The aim is to keep building up clusters of council seats which you can then use to capture the area's parliamentary seats - similar to what the Liberal Democrats have done over the years since the early 1990s.

Apparently similar polls to this are being conducted in 7 other seats as we speak.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Apologies for another post, but here's more data for anyone interested from that poll that has been released -

Main reasons for vote by party?

Conservative

Always voted for them (37%)

I like their policies (37%)

I dislike another party and want to stop them winning (12%)

Labour

Always voted for them (42%)

I like their policies (33%)

I dislike another party and want to stop them winning (7%)

UKIP

I like their policies (62%)

As a general protest (18%)

I like their party leader (5%)

- See more at: http://survation.com/2013/11/new-con....BVfvG8On.dpuf

Look at the difference on whether or not people like a certain parties policies.

[Chippiewill]

Look at the difference on whether or not people like a certain parties policies.

Doesn't really mean anything since barely anyone could vote "Always voted for them" legitimately.

[Kardan]

Apologies for another post, but here's more data for anyone interested from that poll that has been released -



Look at the difference on whether or not people like a certain parties policies.

Doesn't mean anything, like @Chippiewill; said...

Just because someone voted 'Always voted for them' doesn't mean they don't like their parties policies, if that were the case, does that mean 95% of UKIP voters don't like Nigel Farage (since 5% said they do like him).

Plus, more people are bound to say 'Always voted for them' for Labour and Conservatives simply because more people did vote for them in the past compared to UKIP. Not many UKIP supporters can say they always voted UKIP in the past.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Doesn't mean anything, like @Chippiewill; said...

Just because someone voted 'Always voted for them' doesn't mean they don't like their parties policies, if that were the case, does that mean 95% of UKIP voters don't like Nigel Farage (since 5% said they do like him).

Plus, more people are bound to say 'Always voted for them' for Labour and Conservatives simply because more people did vote for them in the past compared to UKIP. Not many UKIP supporters can say they always voted UKIP in the past.

That's true that there's a flaw you have both pointed out, however there is some truth in the finding in that a lot of people voting Conservative or Labour are voting for them mainly (as they picked this option over 'I like there policies') because they've always voted for them. And that's true - how many times have you heard people say before that they're voting Labour or Tory solely to keep the one they dislike out of office? or that their Grandad voted x or y and thus they would. Voting in this country is hugely a tribal act, the polls confirm it when you look at attitudes on immigration, the EU, foreign policy, crime and lots more compared with the actual policies of the main two parties.

I think my Dad was right when I spoke to him today about it, and he noted that perhaps at first voting Ukip was a protest rather than a vote for their policies - but that's all changed now. That political tribalism is dying i'm very glad about.

Mike Smithson ‏@MSmithsonPB 3h

CORRECTION
UKIP 9 points behind Tories in tonight's Opinium poll for Observer
UKIP 19%
CON 28%
LAB 35%
LD 8

- http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ories-cut-poll

[Inseriousity.]

I still would question whether 'I like their policies' is plural. I imagine there is still a perception that they are a one-policy party so I like their policy would be more accurate if that were the case! Despite that, I do like that there is more of a choice in politics and I'll be interested to see whether they make any headway - I will count winning seats as headway seen as 2nd place has already been achieved - or whether their successes were flashes in the pan.

[AgnesIO]

I think my Dad was right when I spoke to him today about it, and he noted that perhaps at first voting Ukip was a protest rather than a vote for their policies - but that's all changed now. That political tribalism is dying i'm very glad about.



- http://www.theguardian.com/politics/...ories-cut-poll

UKIP is ​still a protest vote, and ultimately a protest party.

[-:Undertaker:-]

UKIP is ​still a protest vote, and ultimately a protest party.

Polls say otherwise.

Besides i've made this point before, aren't the two main parties more so protests in that it's one group of people voting party X who hate party Y and want to keep it out... and vice versa? The 'protest party' of Canada is now the Government - http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canadia...election,_1993