Cameron out by May this year?

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://www1.politicalbetting.com/ind...and-a-quarter/

It could be earlier if there’s a post EURO2014 nervous breakdown

The publication of the latest CONHome survey on preferred next party leader is a timely reminder that we could be just 15 months away from a vacancy occurring.

One thing that we know about the Conservative party is that it is pretty unsentimental when it comes to failing/failed leaders.

If Dave doesn’t manage to bring home the goods on May 7th 2015 then it’s hard to see him lasting very long. Even the party securing most seats in the general election might not be enough to save him. Cameron still gets the blame for failing to get a majority last time.

The move could happen much earlier even in the next few months. Coming third in the May Euros might just be the trigger that causes a confidence vote in the Parliamentary Party. That happens when 46 CON MPs write private letters to the Chairman of the 1922 Committee demanding such a vote as happened in October 2003 in the move that ousted Iain Duncan Smith.

The process then is for a secret vote to take place which Cameron would have to win to avoid facing a leadership contest.

Ultimately everything depends on whether the party believes that it would do better at the General Election with somebody else at the helm.

My own view is that the party would be foolish to change the leader at this stage. All the polling points to Cameron being an asset to his party in terms of electability.

This, of course, impacts on so many betting markets. I’ve got 7/1 with Hills that Cameron will go before Clegg and 16/1 with PaddyPower that he’ll face a confidence vote and lose.

As to the next leader I’m on Theresa May and Philip Hammond at longish odds.
Mike Smithson

Agreed with Mike Smithson on pretty much everything there, Cameron (amazingly) is actually an asset to the useless Conservative Party which goes to show just how loathed it is across the land of this country. Dead in Scotland, dead in Wales and dying away in the North of England. Pretty dire situation.

But let's assume he's out by May this year if the Tories come third, the newly appointed leader will be Prime Minister for a year upto the General Election. So the question is to you all - whether you are Labour, UKIP, Liberal Democrat - who would you want to replace him out of those listed above? I'll put a poll up with multiple choice if you have a few you would prefer. Btw with Boris, it's highly unlikely given he's not in the House of Commons but there would always be the chance for him to come in via a by-election.

If I had to pick out of the list (and I am no Conservative supporter) it'd be David Davis, Owen Paterson or IDS.

Thoughts?

[Kardan]

If I had to pick one, it would probably be Boris Johnson.

[Mikey]

Borisss!

[Ardemax]

God help us all if Gove becomes PM.

[The Don]

Boris Johnson is an absolute nonce. I chose william hague but then realised I was thinking of somebody else whose name escapes me.

[Inseriousity.]

I don't think he'll be out in May but I think he'll be out after the general election if the Tories don't do very well. I don't think he'll be out after May because I think he's succeeded in convincing people it's all about securing a majority in the next election (It seems to be a new buzzword for them: if we're a majority in 2015, x, y, z will happen), almost as if they've conceded defeat for the European elections already and decided that it's not very significant anyway. Vote a majority tory government and we'll show what we can do without the pesky Lib Dems dragging us down (who I predict will be wiped out completely at the election). Once he fails to secure that majority - another coalition government imo - then he'll be out.

As for who should replace him, I don't really know.

[FlyingJesus]

BoJo but only if it doesn't get in the way of his becoming King