Record high polling results for Ukip, record low for Liberal Democrats

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://blogs.independent.co.uk/2014/...at-record-low/

Ukip at record high, Liberal Democrats at record low

Nigel Farage’s party has scored its highest poll rating yet in a ComRes poll, for The Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror tomorrow. Labour’s lead has increased to six points as Conservative support falls:

Labour 35% (0)
Conservative 29% (-3)
UKIP 20% (+4)
Other 9% (+1)
Lib Dem 7% (-2)

Change since last month’s ComRes online poll in brackets. The Lib Dem figure, 7 per cent, is the lowest recorded by ComRes online (series started in 2010), and the Conservative figure is the first time the party has been below 30 per cent this year.

Farage’s favourability rating has risen by seven points since February, possibly partly because of his performance in the debates with Nick Clegg, while David Cameron has fallen back to level with him:

Please indicate whether you have a favourable or unfavourable view of each of the following political leaders… (per cent “favourable”)

David Cameron 27% (-4)
Nigel Farage 27% (+7)
Ed Miliband 20% (-2)
Nick Clegg 12% (-1)

The Opinium/Observer poll that's just come out tonight too has -

Labour 36%
Conservative 30%
UKIP 18%
Lib Dem 7%

Looks like the thrashing of Clegg has started to take effect in the polling.... unless something else is afoot.

If we get any interesting European Election voting intention figures out tonight I'll post them.

Thoughts?

[Kardan]

I think we all could have predicted that UKIP would be at a new high, and the Lib Dems at a new low

Interesting to see how high UKIP is percentage wise and I imagine that's quite worrying to the other parties to think how much more it will increase before next year.

[-:Undertaker:-]

I think we all could have predicted that UKIP would be at a new high, and the Lib Dems at a new low

Interesting to see how high UKIP is percentage wise and I imagine that's quite worrying to the other parties to think how much more it will increase before next year.

Just read then that apparently the ComRes poll which has Ukip on 20% for the General Election did not prompt the party in the question but did prompt the Liberal Democrats along with Labour and the Conservatives. That suggests to me that the result has been depressed downward slightly.

And yes it'll be very interesting. Four-party politics under FPTP makes predicting anything very very hard indeed. As it happens and as Mike Smithson of Political Betting has pointed out though, if Labour can retain over 25% of the yellow GE2010 vote then Miliband becomes PM.