Liberal Democrats drop to a 25-year poll low of 5%

[-:Undertaker:-]

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9274

Liberal Democrats drop to a 25-year poll low of 5%

- A rise for both Labour and the Conservatives in recent weeks
- Conservatives ahead of Labour for the third poll running

Conservatives 36%
Labour 34%
Ukip 14%
Greens 6%
Liberal Democrats 5%

Tonight’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 36%, LAB 34%, LDEM 5%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%. The unusual three point lead Tory yesterday clearly wasn’t a one off. I will urge all my usual caution, two polls in a row do not necessary make a trend. However, of the last seven YouGov polls they’ve now shown three Tory leads, three draws and one Labour lead so something may indeed be afoot.

As ever, keep watching the broader trend and see what the rest of the week brings. I can’t see any obvious reason for a big shift in support over the last few days, so if there is a change, it’s likely to be the slow drift in public support that’s difficult to be certain about rather than an obvious step-change.

Interesting, the Liberal Democrat all-time low is worthy of a news headline but of course isn't a trend and neither is the Conservative lead that has appeared again. That said, the national polls aren't all that reliable to go by at the moment as FPTP can malfunction so badly when there's multi-party politics at play as you've got the SNP performing very impressively in Scotland and Ukip strong in many southern and eastern seats that have favourable demographics. All that said, Labour and the Tories are now polling a couple of points stronger than they were a few weeks ago which they appear to have taken from the smaller parties, mainly the Liberal Democrats.

There's apparently some Lord Ashcroft constituency polls out tomorrow which i'll post under here if they are of any interest. There's also, for those who are interested, comments from the President of YouGov via this Twitter feed on prospects for now, 2020 and beyond which you can read here: https://twitter.com/BESResearch ... and here's a little selection.

Peter Kellner: the 2 largest parties are creatures of the 20th century

Peter Kellner: we may revert to a 2 party system again eventually. But I simply don't know who those 2 parties will be

Peter Kellner: the paradox is it's easier to think about 2020 outcomes

Thoughts?

[MKR&*42]

I do think it's a shame, because I would probably vote Lib Dems if it wasn't for their... less than favourable leader, Nick Clegg

[-:Undertaker:-]

I do think it's a shame, because I would probably vote Lib Dems if it wasn't for their... less than favourable leader, Nick Clegg

Do you live in a Liberal Democrats seat? Because they are expected to hold on to a number of seats which they already hold as people in those constituencies are saying in constituency polls that they're going to vote for the yellows: meaning they could literally get less than 5% nationally yet hold on to 20 to 30 MPs.

If you do it could be likely that it's swing voters like you who may save some of their skins. Which seat are you in?

[Chippiewill]

meaning they could literally get less than 5% nationally yet hold on to 20 to 30 MPs.

Ahh yes, our disgusting FPTP system. I'm quietly hoping for UKIP to poll 20% and get 0 seats as a motivator for electoral reform.

[-:Undertaker:-]

Ahh yes, our disgusting FPTP system. I'm quietly hoping for UKIP to poll 20% and get 0 seats as a motivator for electoral reform.

I've actually moved in favour of FPTP in recent years.

Whilst proportional representation sounds great, the reality is that often you can have say the Orange Party get 35% in 2015 which then allies with smaller parties to form a government, the Orange Party then becomes deeply unpopular and in 2020 scores 4%: yet in 2020 it ends up remaining in government in a coalition despite having been kicked out. FPTP to me works as long as there's a choice between the two main parties, which is what we're lacking at the moment.

[FlyingJesus]

No surprise whatsoever, they took a chance alliance in desperation and it didn't work out for them in any single way that I can think of. I don't imagine that anyone voting for LibDem will be a new voter, only personal friends perhaps. Kinda feel bad for them but they did really just become the "hey we're here too!" lot shouting and doing nothing. A sticky kernel on the side that didn't quite pop when the heat went up

[MKR&*42]

Do you live in a Liberal Democrats seat? Because they are expected to hold on to a number of seats which they already hold as people in those constituencies are saying in constituency polls that they're going to vote for the yellows: meaning they could literally get less than 5% nationally yet hold on to 20 to 30 MPs.

If you do it could be likely that it's swing voters like you who may save some of their skins. Which seat are you in?

Nope, Swindon has had cons. majority for quite a while and the village I live in is also conservative

[-:Undertaker:-]

Looks like the Liberal Democrat 5% score was a one-off, if tonights polls are anything to go by...

Daily YouGov -

Labour 34%
Conservatives 34%
Ukip 14%
Liberal Democrats 8%
Greens 6%

And here's an 8k Lord Ashcroft poll that came out today alongside his constituency polls...

8k Lord Ashcroft poll

Labour 34%
Conservatives 30%
Ukip 18%
Liberal Democrats 6%
Greens 6%

I said I would post if those constituency polls were anything really interesting, but they merely confirmed what we already know with previous polls: that Labour in Scotland are still facing a complete wipeout of 35+ seats yet in English marginals, Labour are polling ahead of the Tories which is what it's all about.

[AgnesIO]

Hopefully they continue to die. #neverforget[the tuition fee scandal]

[-:Undertaker:-]

Hopefully they continue to die. #neverforget[the tuition fee scandal]

The sad thing is, many former Liberal Democrat voters will turn to Labour and they should #neverforget this either...