Who are you voting for? [POLL]

[-:Undertaker:-]

Reform overtakes the Conservatives in YouGov poll

Crossover reached as Reform poll second in General Election voting intention threatening a Tory extinction event

📊 Labour lead at 18pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 37% (-1)
REF: 19% (+2)
CON: 18% (-)
LDEM: 14% (-1)
GRN: 7% (-1)

via @YouGov, 12 Junhttps://t.co/RTQh3sUA3w

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) June 13, 2024

This is what happened during Canada 93. Reform shot up as people decided there was no point voting Conservative. https://t.co/S3hNaMrlfv

— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) June 13, 2024

A vote for the Conservatives is now a vote for Labour.

— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) June 13, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

Party manifestos coming out now. Polls still closing between Conservatives and Reform.

It's worth remembering that it is 100 years ago when Labour replaced the Liberals as one of the main two parties....

Our Contract With You.

➡️ https://t.co/FLqisCSHOh pic.twitter.com/4A2rwYvXLL

— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) June 17, 2024

NEW: @RestisPolitics / JLP poll, 14th-16th June

*Reform UK at record high, Tories at record low; Labour lead at 17 points*

Change on last week in brackets

LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 23% (-1)
REF: 18% (+3)
LDEM: 9% (-2)
GRN: 5% (-)

Tables: https://t.co/BozWy47mBb pic.twitter.com/xzUKoY1qkG

— JLP (@JLPartnersPolls) June 17, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

The second poll now to show Reform ahead of the Tories.

And some polling on the leaders.

It's extraordinary for this to happen under our voting system of FPTP - the next Leader of His Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition could literally be whoever is leading whatever is left of the Tories, Sir Ed Davey or Nigel Farage. Tory ministers are now going on the airwaves admitting they're heading for defeat - I cannot think of a General Election where that has happened before.

🚨 BREAKING: Reform UK ties with the Conservatives in the latest poll

🔴 Labour: 43% (+1)
🟣 Reform UK: 18% (+1)
🔵 Conservative: 18% (–)
🟠 Lib Dem: 12% (-1)
🟢 Green: 5% (–)
🟡 SNP: 3% (–)
⚪️ Other: 1% (–)

Via @RedfieldWilton, 14-17 June
Changes w/ 12-13 June

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) June 17, 2024

If Labour wins a majority, who do British voters think would be the best Opposition Leader? (14-17 June)

Nigel Farage 31% (+3)
Rishi Sunak 24% (-3)
Ed Davey 14% (–)
Someone else 11% (-1)
Don't know 20% (+1)

Changes +/- 7-10 June pic.twitter.com/UnmBsx1DYV

— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) June 17, 2024

NEW: @RestisPolitics @JLPartnersPolls

Nigel Farage is seen as the most charismatic politician in the UK and as the most likely to 'tell it how it is'.

He beats Sunak on every rating bar 'competent' and 'gets things done'.

Starmer tops those two and almost all the others. pic.twitter.com/5MuosznNi5

— James Johnson (@jamesjohnson252) June 17, 2024

Largest EVER lead for Starmer over Sunak.

Highest % to pick Starmer.

Lowest % to pick Sunak.

Which of the following do Britons think would be the better PM for the UK? (14-17 June)

Keir Starmer 48% (+1)
Rishi Sunak 25% (-1)

Changes +/- 7-10 Junehttps://t.co/jaxkeEIqPa pic.twitter.com/puc4orpvR1

— Redfield & Wilton Strategies (@RedfieldWilton) June 17, 2024

Quite a few canvassers telling me at the moment that people are getting much more willing to say they're voting Reform.

— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) June 16, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

More polling.

Reform now either level with or overtaking the Conservatives with most pollsters.

Also a poll out for the Clacton constituency - looks like Nigel Farage is heading for the House of Commons.

TVA4 - the code sending chills down spines of Tory canvass teams.

It's what their Vote Source software says are Reform waverers.

But hearing endless reports that when those doors are knocked they are not just wavering but almost always GONE.

South is very, very bad for the…

— Harry Cole (@MrHarryCole) June 21, 2024

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 39% (-2)
RFM: 20% (+3)
CON: 19% (=)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 6% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @WStoneInsight, 19-20 Jun.
Changes w/ 12-13 Jun.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) June 21, 2024

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 42% (+1)
RFM: 18% (+4)
CON: 18% (-3)
LDM: 9% (-3)
GRN: 7% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @BMGResearch, 18-19 Jun.
Changes w/ 11-12 Jun.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) June 20, 2024

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 35% (-4)
RFM: 24% (+7)
CON: 15% (-4)
LDM: 12% (+2)
GRN: 8% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @PeoplePolling, 18 Jun.
Changes w/ 12 Jun.

HEALTH WARNING: It's from People Polling...

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) June 19, 2024

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 40% (-1)
CON: 20% (-1)
RFM: 19% (+2)
LDM: 12% (+1)
GRN: 5% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)

Via @NorstatUKPolls, 17-19 Jun.
Changes w/ 10-12 Jun.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) June 19, 2024

Just got around to doing the unadjusted numbers for yesterday's YouGov:

Lab 37%
Reform 20%
Con 17%
LD 13%
Green 8%

Looks to me like their lower Lab number is largely due to having higher LD/Green numbers than others.

Con/Reform v similar to others.

— Sam Freedman (@Samfr) June 21, 2024

🚨 NEW: Reform UK received 2.5 times more donations than the Tories in the second week of the election

h/t @christiancalgie pic.twitter.com/BppIMRXl8a

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) June 21, 2024

NEW JLP Clacton poll for Friderichs Advisory in @TheSun

*Nigel Farage leads by 27 points*

Farage (REF): 48%
Watling (CON): 21%
Owusu-Nepaul (LAB): 18%
Bensilum (LDEM): 6%
Osben (GRN): 6%

Tables: https://t.co/C80xUBt9U7
Article by @mrharrycole: https://t.co/JtccxxdBqu

— JLP (@JLPartnersPolls) June 21, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

So tomorrow Britain votes. Annoyingly I am in work on Friday, as I would liked to have stayed up all night and sipped on brandy watching each Tory seat fall one after another. The exit poll from Professor Sir John Curtice and team will be out at 10pm so we should have an idea then for those who are in the same boat as me. I'll likely stay up until midnight or just afterwards to see the first results coming in.

A good night for me will be some/a combination of the following;

- Farage wins in Clacton & Reform win some seats.
- Reform come close to/overtake the Tories in number of votes nationally.
- The Tories plummet to under 100 MPs and hopefully lose HM Official Opposition status.
- The SNP are reduced to a small rump out of the 57 seats in Scotland.
- Penny Mordaunt, James Cleverly, Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt lose their seats.


There will be a handful of MPs I will be sad to see go if they lose their seats, like Sir Iain Duncan Smith, Sir David Davis and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg. But for me, the overall destruction of the useless Conservative and Unionist Party is the overarching aim so tough luck for them really.

Anyway, here are some of the final polls tonight as we head into what is looking like a record-breaking historic election.

🚨FINAL Westminster Voting Intention of #GE2024 for @Telegraph

📈Highest ever Reform UK share in a Savanta poll

🌹Lab 39 (=)
🌳Con 20 (-4)
➡️Reform 17 (+4)
🔶LD 10 (=)
🌍Green 5 (+1)
🎗️SNP 2 (-1)
⬜️Other 7 (=)

2,101 UK adults

2-3 July (chg from 28-30 Jun) pic.twitter.com/5JEse0CKLV

— Savanta UK (@Savanta_UK) July 3, 2024

NEW: Final @RestIsPolitics / JLP voting intention poll, July 2nd - 3rd 2024

*Labour lead at 15 points, Reform recovers to close to previous peak*

Change on weekend in brackets

LAB: 38% (-1)
CON: 23% (-1)
REF: 17% (+1)
LDEM: 13% (+3)
GRN: 5% (-)https://t.co/BozWy47mBb pic.twitter.com/Fg4XnbdNOj

— JLP (@JLPartnersPolls) July 3, 2024

📊 Labour lead at 20pts
Westminster voting intention

LAB: 38% (-3)
CON: 18% (-)
REF: 17% (+3)
LDEM: 11% (-1)
GRN: 7% (+2)

via @Survation, 26 Jun - 02 Julhttps://t.co/DOI8y3CDW1

— Britain Elects (@BritainElects) July 3, 2024

Westminster Voting Intention:

LAB: 36% (-4)
RFM: 20% (-1)
CON: 16% (+1)
LDM: 10% (+1)
GRN: 9% (=)
SNP: 4% (+2)

Via @PeoplePolling, 2 Jul.
Changes w/ 25-26 Jun.

— Election Maps UK (@ElectionMapsUK) July 3, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

Not a bad night for what I wanted out of it.

A landslide defeat for the Conservatives - their worst since the Great Reform Act in the 1830s, Penny Mordaunt and Tobias Elwood both unseated, Nigel Farage is now an MP alongside four other Reform Party MPs, the SNP demolished to only 9 out of 59 seats in Scotland, Sir Iain Duncan Smith and Sir David Davis held on as did many other right-wing Tory MPs.

What's interesting is that Labour won such a huge majority on only 33.8% of the national vote - this is because the opposition vote was split between the Conservatives and Reform, similar to what happened to Labour in 1983. In essence what it means is this; there will be no return to power for the Conservatives unless they come to an accommodation with Nigel Farage, because voters like me won't be returning until we see a party that will do what it says.

🤝 The King received in Audience The Rt Hon Sir Keir Starmer MP today and requested him to form a new Administration.

Sir Keir accepted His Majesty's offer and was appointed Prime Minister and First Lord of the Treasury. pic.twitter.com/g1TwdPObbD

— The Royal Family (@RoyalFamily) July 5, 2024

Good morning. pic.twitter.com/oK1NAuVtGK

— Nigel Farage MP (@Nigel_Farage) July 5, 2024

🚨 NEW: 2024 UK General Election Final Results

Seats / votes

🔴 LAB: 411 (+211) / 9,698,409
🔵 CON: 121 (-251) / 6,824,809
🟠 LIB: 72 (+64) / 3,501,040
🟡 SNP: 9 (-39) / 708,759
🍀 SF: 7 (=) / 210,891
⚪️ IND: 6 (+6) / 564,243
🟣 RFM: 5 (+5) / 4,114,287
🦁 DUP: 5 (-3) / 172,058…

— Politics UK (@PolitlcsUK) July 6, 2024

[-:Undertaker:-]

Nigel Farage MP has taken his oath to The King.

He's also made his first speech in the Commons chamber, endorsing the re-election of Sir Lindsay Hoyle as Speaker.

Nigel Farage swears his oath to His Majesty The King and is made official in the House of Commons. I know these next five years will be tough, but thank God we have him in there to call Labour out on every last act of national suicide they're already putting our nation through. pic.twitter.com/JNb5TqPckK

— Darren Grimes (@darrengrimes_) July 11, 2024

Reform UK Leader @Nigel_Farage addresses Parliament for the very first time. ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/ulOY1ZjoVA

— Reform UK (@reformparty_uk) July 9, 2024