The problem is with mathematical modelling is that there are many assumptions made about the situation to make the calculations much easier. In real life, you can't ignore these since they have so much impact on individual situations.
And by the part in bold, what if you have two teachers that are new to teaching, each have taught for just a year. One is a good teacher, but got given a string of bottom set classes and all performed badly with a hard foundation paper, whereas the other is a crap teacher, didn't teach very well but all his classes fluked the exam with an easy higher paper.
That's just two teachers for one year, as you said, it should be looked at over many years, but given that there are 438,000 teachers in England alone, there will be some people that have this happen to them year after year through no fault on their own.
Also with this system, what happens to teachers that go on maternity leave for an extended amount of time? Will they get a bonus for somebody elses work? What about substitute teachers, do they not get a bonus? And what about classes that have multiple teachers? Do they divide their bonus by the number of classes they've taught between them?
As I've said before, there's so many individual situations that no system can fully cover, and even if there was, the grounds of judgement (test performance) isn't even that strong. You can't truly test a teachers ability for high grade performance without top, top students. Just like you can't expect an F1 driver to set quick lap times in a Ford Escort, or somebody in the army to take down multiple enemies with a handgun.








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